Monthly Outlook

Last updated at 10:00 on Saturday 10 November

Summary

Showery at first, then drier and calmer for a time

Blustery and showery at first albeit quite mild. Later in the week and into the second half of November it is likely to become drier and somewhat calmer for a time.There are indications for a return to breezier conditions for the start of December with wetter conditions developing again for at least the north of the UK.

Saturday 10 November—Sunday 18 November

Breezy and showery then drier

This weekend will be rather breezy with showers. The showers will be most frequent and heavy over southern and western counties of Britain where there could be occasional rumbles of thunder. Some of the showers over English Channel coastal counties could be very heavy. Central, northern and eastern areas of Britain together with Northern Ireland will have fewer showers along with some bright or sunny spells. Highs will range from around 10 Celsius in Scotland and Northern Ireland to nearer 14 Celsius over southern England. Night time temperatures will fall to around 3 to 7 Celsius; any frost will be very localised and confined to Scotland and Northern Ireland.
For the first half of the week, it will be breezy with brisk southwesterly winds. Showers or longer spells of rain will move into northwestern and western parts of the UK. There is the potential for western Scotland to be very wet on Wednesday. Meanwhile, central, southern and eastern areas of England will become drier. All areas will be mild for November with highs typically of 12 to 15 Celsius.
For the second half of the week, it is likely to become calmer and drier across most of the UK due to an area of high pressure moving closer to the east of the country. However, as winds ease, areas of fog and low cloud could form during the nights, which could be slow to clear by day.

Temperatures are expected to fall away, probably staying a little above the seasonal average.

Monday 19 November—Sunday 25 November

Calmer, driest in the south.

With an area of high pressure close by, a drier and calmer week is expected for many. The focus of the driest weather but also the risk of fog and low cloud is expected to be in the east initially.
As the week progresses, the high pressure area may begin to sink further south, bringing drier conditions and perhaps fog to the south.
Northern areas should become breezier later in the week, reducing the risk of fog. However, there will be an increasing likelihood of occasional rain here too.
Temperatures are expected to be near the seasonal average over southern areas of the UK and slightly above the seasonal average in the north.
The main area of uncertainty to the forecast is over the positioning of the area of high pressure.

There is a chance that high pressure shifts further north than we expect and if this happens, we could experience chillier easterly winds for a time.

Monday 26 November—Sunday 9 December

Turning breezier and wetter

Through the end of the month and into early December, a change in the weather pattern appears likely. An area of high pressure should move further away to the southwest, allowing rain-bearing weather systems to move in from the Atlantic Ocean.
Northern and northwestern areas of the UK are most likely to see wetter and breezier conditions developing. There is the potential for some prolonged outbreaks of rain for western Scotland, Northern Ireland and Cumbria.
Further south across the UK, a slower progression to wetter and breezier conditions seems more likely. Rainfall amounts are likely to increase to around the normal for the time of year; northern areas of the UK are favoured to be wetter than normal.

Next Update

As we move into the Christmas period what can we expect from the weather?