Unsettled to start but high pressure building
Generally unsettled weather looks to continue for the remainder of the week as a low pressure system stalls just to the northwest of the UK. The first full week of July will see more settled weather as high pressure ridges in from the Azores, and it should turn warmer for many too. Beyond this confidence is quite low. Current models favour high pressure dominating the pattern over much of the UK, with low pressure over Iceland. Temperatures may be a little higher than average especially across the south into the second half of July.
Often showery but turning drier by Sunday
Wednesday will see a frontal system weaken and stall across the UK. Showers which will be heaviest and most frequent in the north and west are likely through the day. They could also turn thundery in places, but there will be some warm spells of sunshine around too and it will be less windy than on Tuesday. The unsettled weather continues on Thursday as the stalled system produces showers that may become heavy, thundery and slow-moving in spots during the afternoon. Confidence decreases somewhat on Friday and Saturday but at this time generally unsettled conditions are expected to continue with further showers likely, especially towards the north and west. It could also become quite breezy at times. More settled conditions may develop on Sunday as high pressure begins to build in from the southwest, reducing the number of showers.
Drier and warmer as high pressure builds
Models suggest that high pressure over the Azores will extend its influence north-eastwards over much of the UK next week. It should therefore be drier than of late for many with spells of sunshine. It will also become warmer with temperatures likely to rise above average for some, particularly towards the south. However, an area of low pressure near Iceland is likely to influence conditions some northern parts of the UK. This will keep conditions generally cooler, breezier and more unsettled for Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland at times, with the chance of showers or spells of rain here. There are weaker signals within the model output that the ridge could be positioned further south which would push the low pressure track and associated chances of rain further south, but this is a low-risk scenario at present.
Monday 11th July to Sunday 24th July
From 11th to 17th July we expected the pattern of the previous week to generally continue with high pressure situated over the Atlantic extending towards western Europe at times through the week, while lows move across near Iceland and Scandinavia. Near seasonal temperatures for much of the UK, however, central and eastern England may see temperatures rise a little above. Wales, England and Northern Ireland could often be rather dry, with Scotland seeing most of any more significant rain. There is a risk of some windier days in Scotland too.
Later in the month confidence is low overall. The favoured pattern at present is high pressure to extend from north-west to eastern Europe with lower pressure near Iceland and Greenland. This is an overall dry, calm pattern with above-average temperatures for England and Wales. Alternatively there are some signals within the models for a more unsettled pattern this week, especially across Scotland.
We will see if there is a better idea of how the middle and end of July could shape up based on the latest data: whether higher pressure will lead to a drier, warmer scenario or if it will turn more unsettled again.