Premier League: What are each side's chances in the race to avoid relegation?

Callum Wilson, Troy Deeney, Tim Krul, Jack Grealish & Declan Rice
There are only three fixtures between teams in the current bottom five in the remaining Premier League games

The Premier League title race may almost be done and dusted - as and when fixtures can be completed - but things are tighter at the bottom of the table with six clubs separated by just eight points.

But which clubs are well placed to avoid relegation? And who has it all to do?

Sports data analysts Gracenote have used their Euro Club Index to work out the percentage chances of survival and passed on the results to BBC Sport.

Who is most likely to go down?

Unsurprisingly, bottom club Norwich are the club most likely to suffer relegation.

Daniel Farke's side have been bottom of the table since their defeat at Aston Villa on 26 December and while a win over Leicester on 28 February raised hopes of a 'great escape', they followed that up by losing at Sheffield United.

"Norwich are in the worst trouble and have 90% chance of going down," says Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis at Gracenote.

"Aston Villa (62% chance of relegation) and Bournemouth (50%) are currently the most likely to join them.

"Southampton and Newcastle United are both almost safe."

Premier League: Who will go down?

Rank the three teams you think will be relegated from the Premier League.

How many points will be required to avoid relegation?

Premier League managers usually reference the magical 40-point mark.

However, that appears a bit dated, having been the threshold for survival just once in the last 16 years.

So how many points will be needed this time?

The odds start to favour a side once they have hit the 36-point mark according to simulations of the remainder of the season using the Euro Club Index rankings of all 20 Premier League teams.

Premier League points survival percentages
PointsChance of staying upChance of relegation
41100%0%
4099%1%
3998%2%
3894%6%
3785%15%
3669%31%
3549%51%
3418%72%
3313%87%
325%95%
311%99%
300%100%
290%100%

Who needs what to stay up?

Norwich City - 90% chance of relegation

PositionPointsPlayed
20th2129
Goal diffPoints per matchPoints per match (last 10)
Source: Euro Club Index
-270.720.90

Norwich City's previous 10 results show an upturn in form but the Canaries still need at least 15 points from their last nine fixtures to stay up. That would average out at 1.67 points per match - more than double their average for the season so far.

Remaining fixtures
Southampton (h) - date to be confirmedChelsea (a) - date to be confirmed
Arsenal (a) - date to be confirmedBurnley (h) - date to be confirmed
Brighton (h) - date to be confirmedMan City (a) - date to be confirmed
Watford (a) - date to be confirmedEverton (h) - date to be confirmed
West Ham (h) - date to be confirmed

Gracenote fact: Norwich City have had the 12th most goal attempts in the Premier League with 335. Norwich have made more goal attempts than both seventh-placed Sheffield United and ninth-placed Arsenal.

Aston Villa - 62% chance of relegation

League positionPointsGames playedGoal differencePoints per matchPoints per match (last 10)
19th2528-220.891
Goal differencePoints per matchPoints per match (last 10)
-220.891

Aston Villa are another side who have improved their points-per-game in their past 10 matches - although they have lost their past four - and they crucially also have a game in hand over every other side in the bottom half of the Premier League.

Dean Smith's side play Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool in their last 10 games but 11 points from that sequence may give them a good chance of avoiding the drop.

Remaining fixtures
Chelsea (h) - date to be confirmedEverton (a) - date to be confirmed
Wolves (h) - date to be confirmedArsenal (h) - date to be confirmed
Liverpool (a) - date to be confirmedWest Ham (a) - date to be confirmed
Man Utd (a) - date to be confirmedNewcastle (a) - date to be confirmed
Crystal Palace (h) - date to be confirmedSheff Utd (h) - date to be confirmed

Gracenote fact: Aston Villa are the only Premier League team to have lost their past four matches.

Bournemouth - 50% chance of relegation

League positionPointsGames played
18th2729
Goal differencePoints per matchPoints per match (last 10)
-180.890.70

Bournemouth's past 10 matches have produced only seven points, which is significantly below their overall average for the season and is also the worst record in the division in that period.

Eddie Howe's side also face challenging trips to Manchester United and Manchester City in their last nine games.

Remaining fixtures
Crystal Palace (h) - date to be confirmedLeicester (a) - date to be confirmed
Wolves (a) - date to be confirmedMan City (a) - date to be confirmed
Newcastle (h) - date to be confirmedSouthampton (h) - date to be confirmed
Man Utd (a) - date to be confirmedEverton (a) - date to be confirmed
Tottenham (h) - date to be confirmed

Gracenote fact: Bournemouth took 59% of their points this season in their first 12 matches. After 12 games, the Cherries were ninth.

Watford - 36% chance of relegation

League positionPointsGames played
17th2729
Goal differencePoints per matchPoints per match (last 10)
-170.931.40

Watford have been rejuvenated since Nigel Pearson took over as manager in December - moving from seven points adrift at the bottom of the table to a position just above the bottom three.

Of the eight relegation candidates, the Hornets are also in the best form, taking 14 points from their past 10 matches, one more than they managed from their first 19 games of the campaign.

Remaining fixtures
Leicester (h) - date to be confirmedNewcastle (h) - date to be confirmed
Burnley (a) - date to be confirmedWest Ham (a) - date to be confirmed
Southampton (h) - date to be confirmedMan City (h) - date to be confirmed
Chelsea (a) - date to be confirmedArsenal (a) - date to be confirmed
Norwich (h) - date to be confirmed

Gracenote fact: Watford have taken more points from their past 10 matches than Tottenham.

West Ham - 29% chance of relegation

League positionPointsGames played
16th2729
Goal differencePoints per matchPoints per match (last 10)
-150.930.80

While West Ham have put in encouraging displays in recent defeats at Liverpool and Arsenal, manager David Moyes will be hoping that performances translate into points sooner rather than later.

Only Bournemouth have taken fewer points in their past 10 matches and a repeat of that form in the last 10 games is unlikely to be enough for them to survive.

Remaining fixtures
Wolves (h) - date to be confirmedNorwich (a) - date to be confirmed
Tottenham (a) - date to be confirmedWatford (h) - date to be confirmed
Chelsea (h) - date to be confirmedMan Utd (a) - date to be confirmed
Newcastle (a) - date to be confirmedAston Villa (h) - date to be confirmed
Burnley (h) - date to be confirmed

Gracenote fact: West Ham were fifth after seven matches, winning three, drawing three and losing only to Manchester City.

Brighton - 31% chance of relegation

League positionPointsGames played
15th2929
Goal differencePoints per matchPoints per match (last 10)
-81.000.90

Brighton's form has also dropped off with only nine points from their past 10 matches, compared with a point per game across the whole season.

Remaining fixtures
Arsenal (h) - date to be confirmedSouthampton (a) - date to be confirmed
Man Utd (h) - date to be confirmedNewcastle (h) - date to be confirmed
Norwich (a) - date to be confirmedBurnley (a) - date to be confirmed
Liverpool (h) - date to be confirmedLeicester (a) - date to be confirmed
Man City (h) - date to be confirmed

Gracenote fact: No win in the past nine matches for Brighton, which is the longest current run without a victory in the Premier League.

Southampton - 1% chance of relegation

League positionPointsGames played
14th3429
Goal differencePoints per matchPoints per match (last 10)
-171.171.30

Southampton look on course to maintain their Premier League status despite their home defeat by Newcastle on Saturday.

Only Watford have better recent form than Ralph Hasenhuttl's side - taking a point more than the Saints in the past 10 games.

Remaining fixtures
Norwich (a) - date to be confirmedBrighton (h) - date to be confirmed
Watford (a) - date to be confirmedBournemouth (a) - date to be confirmed
Man City (h) - date to be confirmedSheff Utd (h) - date to be confirmed
Everton (a) - date to be confirmedArsenal (h) - date to be confirmed
Man Utd (a) - date to be confirmed

Gracenote fact: Southampton are the only one of the eight relegation candidates to have won 10 times this season, one more than Arsenal.

Newcastle - 1% chance of relegation

League positionPointsGames played
13th3529
Goal differencePoints per matchPoints per match (last 10)
-161.211.00

Despite making a difficult start, Steve Bruce has slowly navigated his side clear of the bottom three, meaning there is little reason for concern for Newcastle supporters.

If Bruce's side can maintain present form, they would end the season on 44 points - well clear of the relegation places.

Remaining fixtures
Sheffield Utd (h) - date to be confirmedBrighton (a) - date to be confirmed
Bournemouth (a) - date to be confirmedLiverpool (h) - date to be confirmed
West Ham (h) - date to be confirmedAston Villa (h) - date to be confirmed
Watford (a) - date to be confirmedMan City (a) - date to be confirmed
Tottenham (h) - 2 May

Gracenote fact: Despite being more or less safe in 13th place, Newcastle are the joint lowest scorers in this season's Premier League with just 25 goals. Newcastle scored their first goal since 21 January in their 1-0 win at Southampton on Saturday.

Top Stories