Champions League last 16: What are each side's chances?
Last updated on .From the section European Football
Who are the clubs well placed to progress from the Champions League last 16? And who has it all to do?
Football's suspension because of coronavirus meant the competition was halted with four last-16 ties completed and four still to be concluded.
RB Leipzig knocked out Tottenham Hotspur, Atletico Madrid edged past Liverpool, Atalanta eliminated Valencia and Paris St-Germain fought back to see off Borussia Dortmund.
Two English sides remain in the competition - with Chelsea trailing by three goals against Bayern Munich, and Manchester City leading Real Madrid 2-1.
To assess the percentage chance of each side progressing, sports data analysts Gracenote have used their Euro Club Index - feeding the results to us at BBC Sport.
Juventus v Lyon (7 August, agg 0-1)
| Percentage chance of progression | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Quarter-final | Semi-final | Finalists | Runners-up | Winners |
| Juventus | 48% | 19% | 7% | 4% | 4% |
| Lyon | 52% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Favourites to progress in bold. Source: Euro Club Index | |||||
What happened in the first leg? Lucas Tousart scored the only goal while Juve defender Matthijs de Ligt was off the pitch getting treatment for a head injury. Maurizio Sarri's side failed to have a single shot on target.
How has this score played out previously? Teams winning 1-0 at home in the first leg have progressed 23 times and been eliminated 10 times.
Any hope for Juventus? Lyon's last foray into the last 16 did not go well in 2019. They held Barcelona 0-0 at home in the first leg but then suffered a humbling 5-1 defeat at the Nou Camp.
How have both teams done since the restart? Juve come into the game having clinched a ninth consecutive Serie A title - although they stumbled over the line with some patchy form. France's Ligue 1 was finished early so Lyon's only competitive game since 8 March was the French League Cup final against Paris St-Germain - which they lost on penalties - on 31 July.
Who will the winners meet in the quarter-finals? Real Madrid or Manchester City
Manchester City v Real Madrid (7 August, agg 2-1)
| Percentage chance of progression | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Quarter-final | Semi-final | Finalists | Runners-up | Winners |
| Manchester City | 80% | 58% | 28% | 11% | 17% |
| Real Madrid | 20% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 3% |
| Favourites to progress in bold. Source: Euro Club Index | |||||
What happened in the first leg? Manchester City produced a stunning late fightback as Gabriel Jesus and Kevin de Bruyne scored in the final 12 minutes after Isco had given Real the lead. Madrid captain Sergio Ramos was sent off, meaning he will be banned for the second leg.
How has this score played out previously? Teams winning 2-1 away in the first leg have progressed eight times and been eliminated once.
Any hope for Real Madrid? Zinedine Zidane has never been knocked out of the Champions League as a manager, winning it with each of his three attempts.
How have both teams done since the restart? Real have been in magnificent form since the coronavirus break, winning 10 and drawing their other La Liga game to wrap up the title. City have won nine of their 12 games, but lost their Premier League title to Liverpool and were beaten in the FA Cup semi-final by Arsenal.
Who will the winners meet in the quarter-finals? Lyon or Juventus
Barcelona v Napoli (8 August, agg 1-1)
| Percentage chance of progression | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Quarter-final | Semi-final | Finalists | Runners-up | Winners |
| Barcelona | 74% | 34% | 20% | 7% | 13% |
| Napoli | 26% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Favourites to progress in bold. Source: Euro Club Index | |||||
What happened in the first leg? Dries Mertens put Napoli ahead to become their all-time joint-top scorer (a record he has since claimed outright) before Antoine Griezmann's equaliser. Barca had Arturo Vidal sent off late on.
How has this score played out previously? Teams drawing 1-1 at home in the first leg - as Napoli did - have progressed 12 times and been eliminated 24 times.
Who has the advantage? The fact that Napoli have gone out in both of their previous appearances at this stage does not bode well. Barcelona also drew their last-16 first leg last season - 0-0 with Lyon - before winning the return 5-1.
How have both teams done since the restart? Barca are in disarray. On the day they lost the La Liga title to Real Madrid, Lionel Messi said that "if we continue like this, we'll lose to Napoli". Napoli beat Juventus on penalties to win their first Coppa Italia since 2014 but finished outside of Serie A's top six for the first time since 2008-09.
Who will the winners meet in the quarter-finals? Bayern Munich or Chelsea
Bayern Munich v Chelsea (8 August, agg 3-0)
| Percentage chance of progression | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Quarter-final | Semi-final | Finalists | Runners-up | Winners |
| Bayern Munich | 98% | 59% | 36% | 12% | 24% |
| Chelsea | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Favourites to progress in bold. Totals of 0% have been rounded down so can be anything up to 0.49%. Source: Euro Club Index | |||||
What happened in the first leg? Bayern Munich were sensational at Stamford Bridge, blowing away Frank Lampard's side in the second half. Serge Gnabry scored twice while Robert Lewandowski scored a third. Chelsea pair Jorginho and Marcos Alonso picked up bans for the second leg.
How has this score played out previously? Teams winning 3-0 away in the first leg have progressed five times and have never been eliminated.
Any hope for Chelsea? If we go by history alone, no. No team has overturned a 3-0 deficit when travelling away for the second leg. Saying that, Tottenham were 3-0 down on aggregate with 35 minutes to play in Amsterdam last season, so miracles do happen.
How have both teams done since the restart? Bayern Munich won every game to seal the German double and keep them in contention for the treble. They have won their past 17 matches. Chelsea booked a place in next season's Champions League, but then lost to Arsenal in the FA Cup final on 1 August.
Who will the winners meet in the quarter-finals? Barcelona or Napoli
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When City 1st reached the CL you had no European pedigree so were a pot 4 team. You kept getting knocked out of hard groups. UEFA changed the rules FOR YOU so league winners were automatically pot 1. You then started having easy groups and reaching to the latter rounds.
UEFA don't have anything against you, they just banned you cos you cheated!
Spurs dont have an impossible task but with the way they are playing and the injuries they have it is highly likly they will go out
Cant see anyway back from 3-0 down for Chelsea
City are clear favorites to go through but if Real turn up and get an early goal its all to play for at the Etihad.
Who came up with these numbers?"
Considering you've on won 1 away came this calendar year, and that was against the dreadful Aston Villa before Son got injured. I'd honestly say Spurs having a 19% chance of progression is flattering!
"Definitely not Chelsea......
Not seen such a one sided game at this stage of the champions league than the lesson in football Bayern gave Chelsea on thier own pitch......."
Didnt Arsenal lose 5-1 at home and 5-1 away to Bayern at this stage of the competition.
stop being so offended and try switching your brains on for once.
It's akin to saying to Ben Johnson or Lance:
"Well, you're disqualified for doping but seeing as you're here, fancy having a last shot at it?"
UEFA have had a shocker.
Actually Liverpool have won it 18 times about to make 19
just because a Marathon bar changed its name to a Snickers bar does not mean the contents are not the same ... its just a wrapper
Where does Mourinho factor into this? Honestly, WHERE? I don't support Spurs, but it's sad to watch things play out exactly as almost everyone said it would.
It'll be a tough night for Liverpool and they'll better form but if anyone can pull it out of the fire it's Liverpool.
Spurs 88% chance of going out looks a bit wide of the mark and it's all to play for even though they are up against it.
Chelsea look dead in the water but can just go out and put on a performance.
............ Official attendance figures show a capacity crowd.
lol