Women's World Cup 2019: Who do the stats suggest will win the tournament in France?

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Women's World Cup 2019: Bizarre fan outfits, Japanese heartache & more as Italy & Netherlands progress

Eight teams remain in the Women's World Cup in France, with the first quarter-final between England and Norway kicking off on Thursday at 20:00 BST.

As well as Phil Neville's Lionesses, defending champions the United States are in the last eight, but the most likely final is Germany v France if you put faith in the stats.

And, with the route to the final in Lyon on 7 July decided, it is the hosts who look set to lift the trophy - if the numbers are to be believed.

Simon Gleave from data analysts Gracenote explains...

France remain favourites

The host nation are still regarded as favourites despite facing a testing quarter-final against USA, the free-scoring world number one side, on Friday at 20:00.

The fact one of those teams will be eliminated means Germany are now second favourites, and Martina Voss-Tecklenburg's side sit in the bottom half of the draw, which contains no other teams from the top four of the world rankings.

  • France a 27% chance of lifting the World Cup, up from their pre-tournament chance of 22%.
  • Germany, who have not been past the quarter-finals since winning the tournament in 2007, have a 19% chance of glory.
  • The United States (17%), England (13%) and the Netherlands (12%) round off the leading sides.
  • The Dutch have beaten two higher-ranked teams - Canada and Japan - in their past two matches.
  • The Netherlands have come into the reckoning because their quarter-final opponents, Italy, are the lowest ranked of the teams still in the competition - 16th.
  • There is a 79% chance that this year's World Cup winners will be either France, Germany, USA and England. The most likely final is France v Germany - a 16% chance.
  • The most likely teams to reach the semi-finals are England (68% chance of beating Norway), the Netherlands (67%), Germany (64%) and France (56%).

Great Britain among favourites for Olympic spots

The World Cup doubles up as Olympic qualifying for the European nations but there are only three spots available.

If multiple teams go out at the same time to leave fewer than three teams in the competition, there will also be an Olympic qualifying tournament for the last place(s).

With seven European teams remaining, France, Germany and Great Britain (England) are the favourites to represent Europe in the women's football competition at the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo.

  • If France are eliminated by the United States, the winners of the other three quarter-finals will all qualify for the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games.
  • If France beat the USA, the winners of the semi-finals will qualify for the 2020 Olympic Games and will be joined by the winners of the bronze final.
  • Germany, the Netherlands and England (Great Britain) are the favourites to represent Europe in the women's football competition at the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo.

How the predictions are worked out

  • The ratings within the Fifa women's ranking of football teams can be used to estimate the percentage chance of each match at the World Cup being a win, draw or loss for each of the teams.
  • These percentages are then fed into a simulation of the World Cup which Gracenote runs a million times to produce estimates of the chance that each team reaches a particular stage of the competition.
  • The simulation is run after each round of results to produce a new forecast

BBC Sport has launched #ChangeTheGame this summer to showcase female athletes in a way they never have been before. Through more live women's sport available to watch across the BBC this summer, complemented by our journalism, we are aiming to turn up the volume on women's sport and alter perceptions. Find out more here.

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