World Cup 2018: England 'have 4% chance of winning in Russia'

2018 Fifa World Cup on the BBC
Host: Russia Dates: 14 June - 15 July
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England have less chance of winning the Fifa World Cup than Peru, according to sports data company Gracenote.

The Peruvians who are ranked 11th in the world - two places ahead of England - have been given a 5% chance of lifting the trophy in Moscow on 15 July, while Gareth Southgate's side have a 4% chance, the same as Belgium and Portugal.

Five-time champions Brazil are favourites with a 21% chance of winning the tournament, ahead of Spain, Germany and Argentina.

So how far will England get?

England face Tunisia, Panama and Belgium in Group G and they have a 71% chance of reaching the knock-out rounds.

That calculation is based on one million simulations of the World Cup run by Gracenote, with points awarded for each match based on the probability of a win/draw/defeat based on the ranking of each side.

If they qualify from Group G, England will face either Poland, Senegal, Colombia or Japan from Group H in the last 16 and are predicted to have a 41% chance of progressing.

But their odds tumble in the quarter-finals - where they could face the likes of Germany or Brazil - with an 18% chance of reaching the semis and 9% chance of making the final.

England's chances of reaching the knockout stage
England's chances of reaching the knockout stage

What about the rest?

  • There is a 47% chance of a first-time winner, so someone other than Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, Spain, England or Uruguay
  • Latin American and European teams will dominate, with 10 of the last 16 being from Europe, five from South America and one from Central America
  • African side Senegal, in Group H, have a 45% chance of breaking the mould and qualifying for the last 16
  • Peru, who are playing at the World Cup for the first time since 1982, are tipped to be this tournament's surprise packages with a 22% chance to be in the final four
  • Colombia have a 21% chance of reaching the semis
Chances of reaching the knockout stages
Group A: Uruguay 77%, Russia 60%, Egypt 36%, Saudi Arabia 27%
Group B: Spain 76%, Portugal 58%, Iran 35%, Morocco 30%
Group C: France 69%, Peru 68%, Denmark 35%, Australia 27%
Group D: Argentina 82%, Croatia 57%, Iceland 35%, Nigeria 27%
Group E: Brazil 90%, Switzerland 51%, Serbia 31%, Costa Rica 28%
Group F: Germany 79%, Mexico 60%, Sweden 34%, South Korea 27%
Group G: England 71%, Belgium 71%, Tunisia 32%, Panama 26%
Group H: Colombia 77%, Poland 50%, Senegal 45%, Japan 29%

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