Premier League predictions: Which team will win the title on goal difference?

Sunderland fans on radios
Will Sunderland be relying on other scores by the end of the season?

Just one point separates the top four sides in the Premier League - and the title race is destined to remain extremely tight to the very end.

But who will win it on goal difference? Data company Gracenote has the answer, but you'll have to scroll down for their prediction.

In the meantime, it's looking bleak for the Black Cats of Sunderland at the other end of the table.

After 10 games, they have just two points in the bag, are bottom of the pile and have just a 19% chance of avoiding the drop into the Championship.

Gracenote say they will finish on 28 points, well adrift of safety, although they will not be the worst side in Premier League history.

They will not even be the worst Sunderland side in the top flight.

The Black Cats managed 15 points in 2005-06 and 19 in 2002-03, relegated to the Championship on both occasions.

There is a sliver of hope for Sunderland boss David Moyes, though.

Crystal Palace and Everton managed just three points from their opening 10 matches in the 2013-14 and 1994-95 seasons respectively but stayed up.

For the record, the worst Premier league performers are Derby County, who collected just 11 points - one win and eight draws - in 2007-08.

Worst Premier League starts after 10 games
SeasonTeamWonPointsFinal position
1995-96Manchester City0218
1993-94Swindon Town0322
2013-14Crystal Palace1311

And the title goes to?

It will perhaps come as no surprise to learn that Leicester City's hopes of retaining their crown are already over.

According to Gracenote, the Foxes have a 0.1% chance of emulating their success of last season. Currently 11th, they are predicted to finish eighth.

It is looking bleak, too, for Manchester United.

Their title chances are rated at just 1.3% by Gracenote, who think Jose Mourinho's side will finish in sixth on 64 points, well adrift of the top four.

That is one place lower and two points fewer than last season, which ended with an FA Cup victory but with manager Louis van Gaal losing his job.

Worse news for United fans is that neighbours Manchester City will finish top, pipping Arsenal on goal difference.

Gracenote predicted City and the Gunners would battle it out for the title before the season started and the duo are currently locked on 23 points at the top.

Liverpool have also collected 23 points thanks to seven wins and two draws from their opening 10 games, but Gracenote predicts Jurgen Klopp's side will ultimately finish three points back in third.

"Liverpool are still improving and we may be underestimating them still," says Simon Gleave, Gracenote Sports' head of analysis.

The fourth and final Champions League spot will go to Chelsea in Antonio Conte's first season in charge, with Tottenham four points back in fifth.

So how will the final table look?

Look away if you are a fan of Sunderland, Hull City or Swansea. Manchester City supporters may want to post it all over social media.

Current points & position after 10 gamesPredicted pointsTitle chance
Manchester City23 (1st)7830.3%
Arsenal23 (2nd)7828.7%
Liverpool23 (3rd)7519.5%
Chelsea22 (4th)7313.8%
Tottenham Hotspur20 (5th)695.6%
Manchester United15 (8th)641.3%
Everton18 (6th)560.4%
Leicester City12 (11th)560.1%
Southampton13 (9th)550.1%
Watford15 (7th)450%
Stoke City12 (12th)440%
Burnley11 (14th)440%
West Ham United10 (17th)430%
Crystal Palace11 (13th)410%
Bournemouth12 (10th)400%
West Bromwich Albion10 (16th)390%
Middlesbrough10 (15th)380%
Swansea City5 (19th)380%
Hull City7 (18th)360%
Sunderland2 (20th)280%

How does it work?

Gracenote runs season simulations 10,000 times to come up with its predictions, using results from the past four years.

Points are awarded per match based on the probability of a win/draw/defeat and added to points already won to calculate the predicted points.

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