Forecasting: How to Map the Future

Why do so many economic and business forecasts fail to correctly map the future? Adam Shaw examines the pitfalls forecasters face and asks how they might learn to avoid them.

Why do so many economic and business forecasts fail to correctly map the future? Adam Shaw asks why so many recessions take us by surprise and why the failure of certain forecasts should be a cause of celebration, not despair. He examines the role of complexity and groupthink and how technological advance can scupper the best laid forecasts. Do we, as consumers, invest too much faith in forecasts? And is there anything forecasters can do to ensure their pronouncements are more reliable?
Producer: Rosamund Jones
(Image: Adam Shaw at a pool table. Credit: BBC)

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26 minutes

Last on

Sun 23 Jul 2017 14:06GMT

Broadcasts

  • Sat 22 Jul 2017 02:06GMT
  • Sat 22 Jul 2017 10:32GMT
  • Sat 22 Jul 2017 21:32GMT
  • Sat 22 Jul 2017 22:32GMT
  • Sun 23 Jul 2017 02:06GMT
  • Sun 23 Jul 2017 14:06GMT

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