Vaughan Gething says Labour still has a "mountain to climb" but the party has led a "positive campaign".
Adding he was disappointed about losing Vale of Clwyd to the Tories, the health minister added: "We really need to see all of those very tight competitive results to really understand the message the people of wales have given on the shape of the next Senedd."
The health minister in the last goverment said the party needed to see what happened in the Rhondda and Llanelli, between Plaid and Labour, and the Tory marginals, the Vale of Glamorgan included.
"We need to see all of those before we start speculating about the shape of the next government," he added.
"During the campaign we have gone from the Tories starting off in the best position possible, to us then gaining ground, largely because of leadership in the pandemic, and the way the people of Wales felt about the Welsh government, our choices and our honesty in leading Wales through this extraordinary period of time... that's why I think we have seen a turnaround."