In...out...shake it all about

Hello - Tomos Livingstone here. Normal service - in the shape of Betsan - returns next week.

Funny how your work life balance wobbles sometimes. On the weekend I had a break from reading the Sunday papers to sing the Hokey Cokey with a group of toddlers. In the spirit of ever closer union, we were even taught to sing it in Italian. It's L'Hokey Pokey, since you ask.

All the while David Cameron was working on his own version of in, out (avanti! indietro! - sorry, it's stuck in my mind).

The bald facts are simple - if the Prime Minister wins the 2015 General Election he'll re-negotiate the terms of Britain's membership of the EU and put it to the people in the referendum. In, on my new terms, or Out.

Mr Cameron has to turn around several times first - not least winning the General Election and then successfully negotiating something meaningful with Brussels. But - for now at least - he seems to have done enough to please eurosceptics in his own party and clip UKIP's wings a little.

But shake it all about and things get a little messier. Where does it all leave, for instance, the referendum on Scottish independence next year? One of arguments against independence has always been that an independent Scotland would have to start from scratch and apply to join the EU. But won't Alex Salmond now be able to argue that David Cameron wants to pull out anyway?

That's certain what worries Carwyn Jones, who said yesterday a "dangerous dynamic" had been introduced to the debate over the future of the UK.

Mr Jones also worries that international businesses will look at Wales, and the rest of the UK, and sound the 'uncertainty' klaxon before swiftly locating somewhere else that's firmly inside in the EU and staying there - like Ireland.

When I spoke to him yesterday The First Minister also dismissed the idea that Ed Miliband was on the wrong side of public opinion with his decision not to match Mr Cameron's referendum promise - at least not yet.

"If people want to vote on our membership of the EU, they can vote for UKIP, that's what UKIP stands for," he said.

"If people want Wales to be independent they can vote for Plaid Cymru; that's what Plaid Cymru stand for. So if people want that they have a party they can vote for."

Spare a thought too for the people hoping to become Wales' four MEPs next year. Should they take out insurance in case Britain votes to leave in 2017, cutting short their careers?

The five parties in Wales are busy selecting their candidates - the one that doesn't have any Welsh MEPs, the Lib Dems, are likely to be the first to announce their list next month.

Labour's Derek Vaughan is likely to stay at the top of his party's list, with names like Margaret Hanson and Christina Rees being suggested as contenders for the second slot.

No other party is likely to compete for a second Welsh seat, so it's all about staying on top of the list - UKIP's John Bufton plans a second term, while Plaid's Jill Evans and the Conservatives' Kay Swinburne are likely to retain their places too. All will be revealed by the autumn, with the election in May 2014.

Will Mr Cameron's speech alter the outcome much? We'll have to wait and see.