Results exceeded Nicola Sturgeon's expectations

Brian Taylor gives his analysis of the 2019 general election in Scotland as the results unfold.


The Lib Dems say Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton will act as joint leaders of the party, given Jo Swinson's constituency defeat. A leadership contest will take place in the New Year.


Image caption Alistair Carmichael (third left) retains his Orkney and Shetland seat

And so Alistair Carmichael wins Orkney and Shetland. The Lib Dems end up with net four in Scotland. Gained one, North East Fife. Lost one.

The snag is the one they lost was held by their federal leader.


Talking mandates. When it comes to governance, these involve victory for a manifesto in an election.

But, when it comes to issues such as referendums, especially when their possibility is disputed, they are partly about momentum.

In which regard, the Tories entered this election in Scotland, declaring their aim to stop indyref2.

They lost seats. The SNP entered this election saying, in part, that they wanted a referendum by the end of 2020. They gained seats. The momentum is with the SNP. Consider it the other way round. What if the SNP had lost seats? Their opponents would have declared the end of indyref2.


Ian Blackford, the SNP Commons leader in the last Parliament, retains his seat - and immediately demands indyref2.

He is not prepared, he says, to see Scotland out of the EU against her will. He states: "We will have our referendum". And adds: Scotland will become an independent member of the European Union.


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Image caption Nessie can rest undisturbed without Ruth Davidson skinny dipping in Loch Ness

Jamie Stone squeaks home in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. Victory for the Lib Dems over an SNP advance. This means the SNP cannot make 50. Nessie can rest undisturbed.


Massive victory for the SNP in Gordon. The seat was previously held by Alex Salmond.


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Image caption Ruth Davidson previously said she would skinny dip in Loch Ness if the SNP won 50 seats

Five Scottish seats to go. The SNP need them all to oblige Ruth Davidson to take to the waters. It's not looking likely, given relative Lib Dem performance.


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Christine Jardine holds Edinburgh West for the Lib Dems. Could Jo Swinson be the only Scottish casualty for her party?

That phrase again. "Nationalism both sides of the border." Used by Christine Jardine. But used repeatedly by other Lib Dem speakers.


Just glancing again at the UK voting share. Tories up a bit. Labour down fairly steeply. But LibDems up four points. The leader who helped deliver that is out of Parliament.


Ian Murray says Labour must listen and respond - or die.


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Ian Murray retains Edinburgh South. He is the only Scottish Labour MP. And a sharp critic of the now departing leader, Jeremy Corbyn.


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Nicola Sturgeon says the results have exceeded even her expectations. She wants Scotland's future in Scotland's hands.

She reluctantly accepts that Boris Johnson has a mandate to take England out of the EU - but not Scotland.

She insists she has a mandate to offer Scotland the choice of independence. She will send a formal demand before Christmas and says the Tories must recognise democracy.


Quite a way to go yet. But still looking likely that the SNP could win more than 50 seats. Stand by for Loch Ness, Ruth.


She smiles. She congratulates her victorious opponent. But this must be heart-rending for Jo Swinson.

Defeated in her home patch, while battling around Great Britain as a whole. Democracy, however, means little without political change, without political churn. It doesn't make it easy for those affected.


Image caption Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson lost her East Dunbartonshire seat to the SNP

And so Jo Swinson has lost East Dunbartonshire by a tiny margin. She led her party but lost her seat. The SNP have taken the constituency.


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Image caption Will Boris Johnson heed the Brexiteers in his party?

Boris Johnson, set to be returned as PM, once again declares himself a One Nation Tory.

Intriguing this is the tone his administration will adopt. Yes, it will be "Get Brexit done". No doubt he will now pursue a trade deal with vigour.

But will he heed the Brexiteers in his party who say no extension to transition. Or will he - again - seek an extension, perhaps deploying his majority? And that applies to economic policy too. How to define One Nation?


Wendy Chamberlain takes Fife North East for the LibDems. A gain from the SNP. Stephen Gethins can do no more than applaud politely.

This was Ming Campbell's seat for many years. Before that, Tory. Now back in Lib Dem hands.

Perhaps bearing out the signs across Scotland of a generic rise, albeit slight, in Lib Dem Scottish vote. On to East Dunbartonshire.....


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Image caption Jeremy Corbyn is standing down as Labour leader

Corbyn standing down. He will not lead in the next general election. But he will stay to allow discussion.


Tories hold a seat - their first in Scotland. Douglas Ross hangs on in Moray.


And he's back. Alyn Smith elected as MP for Stirling. Strictly, he hasn't yet given up as an MEP. But that doesn't now look like a long-term prospect. An excellent victory for the SNP. Setback for the Tories.


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Nicola Sturgeon arrives at the count in Glasgow with her party having won every seat so far in Scotland. She says it is still her intention to urge for an independence referendum in an approach to the new PM before Christmas.


Mhairi Black trenchant as always. Asked whether the SNP simply submit to a Boris Johnson victory, she replies: "No chance!"


Image caption Richard Leonard says Labour failed to get through the "din" of Brexit and other constitutional issues

Richard Leonard says Labour failed to get through the "din" of Brexit and other constitutional issues. Which is another way of saying folk were unsure about Labour's position.

The Scottish Labour leader says he tried to talk about poverty but couldn't be held. I understand his point - but parties cannot choose the agenda, especially when it is completely dominated by Brexit and independence.

These are not constitutional distractions from the truth. They are fundamental. Labour's stance was uncertain. Mr Leonard says cast iron positions might not have helped.

Owen Thompson back in Midlothian. That pattern again.


And so John Nicolson triumphs for the SNP in Ochil. Congrats to him. The irony is that he might have won in his old constituency of East Dunbartonshire. But a very good victory for him tonight.


East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow. Another big win for the SNP. Anyone detect a pattern.....? Those LibDem seats still going to be fascinating.


A glance at the Scottish voting share. SNP well up. Tories down. Labour well down. But the LibDems are slightly up. Does that add to caveats over the exit poll, or at least their place in it?


Tories had high hopes in Lanark and Hamilton East. Another victory for the SNP, with an increased majority.


Derek Mackay, Scotland's finance secretary, says it is scarcely the SNP's fault that Labour is rubbish. He notes that tonight is an argument for independence. Scotland is not getting the government she voted for.


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Image caption More than half the electorate backed Mhairi Black in Paisley

More than half the electorate backed Mhairi Black in Paisley. And we have the result from West Dunbartonshire. Another good victory for SNP. We are now awaiting East Dunbartonshire. Is Jo Swinson out, defeated by the SNP?


Ian Murray, hoping to be returned as Labour MP in Edinburgh South, says the results tonight are "an absolute disaster" for Labour. He says reflection is needed. And there is a need for a credible alternative opposition.


We've had the declaration of Arbroath. And now we have the Kilmarnock edition. The verdict in both cases? SNP victories. They are well on course for an excellent night.


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Image caption Will Jeremy Corbyn stand down as leader of the Labour Party?

Ged Killen, the defeated Labour candidate in Rutherglen, points to two problems for his party. No clarity on Brexit and indyref2. And Jeremy Corbyn. He anticipates that Mr Corbyn will now stand down as leader.


More about Rutherglen. The SNP vote is not as high as the exit poll suggests. The Labour vote is not as dire. So yet more caveats about that exit poll.

But still, an excellent result for the SNP. Many congratulations to the returning MP Margaret Ferrier.


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Image caption The SNP's Margaret Ferrier has won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West seat

First Scottish result. Rutherglen and Hamilton West. SNP have taken it back from Labour, having won it in 2015. That concept of regaining seats could become a pattern. If that exit poll is correct....


Ian Davidson, former Labour MP, says there will be a discussion within the Labour Party. But he plays down the need for an immediate change of leadership. Labour, he says, will have a continuing job to do to oppose austerity.


Ian Blackford of the SNP recalling that the people of Scotland were told in 2014 that the way to keep Scotland in the EU was to retain the Union. Not, Mr Blackford notes, how things turned out.

Douglas Alexander arguing for a fundamental conversation about the future of Labour, if the exit poll proves to be correct. The first three results in the north east of England are broadly in line, especially that remarkable outcome in Blyth.


Back in the middle ages, I was a lobby correspondent at Westminster for a group of papers including the Newcastle Journal.

From that distant perspective, that is a remarkable result in Blyth Valley.

The Tories have taken a seat which used to be held by ex-miner Ronnie Campbell for Labour. Truly, Brexit is driving outcomes. In England. And perhaps, in a different way, in Scotland.


The Lib Dems are casting big doubt on the exit poll. They say it does not reflect their experience in key seats. Remember those caveats.


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Plan B in action for the SNP. If they have failed to lock Boris Johnson out of Downing Street, they will now argue that Scotland's distinctive standpoint must be respected. Not least with a referendum on independence - that point made by Angus Robertson, former SNP Westminster leader.


Douglas Alexander, former Labour Foreign Secretary, says Corbynism has been tested to destruction. Ambiguity the road to ruin.


The Exit Poll for Scotland suggests that the Liberal Democrats would lose their Scottish seats - including Jo Swinson's in East Dunbartonshire. Ming Campbell reckons that's wrong.

Caveats, caveats. This exit poll is beyond trend for the opinion polls of the campaign, increasing the Tory lead. It also goes beyond the percentage allocated to the SNP in the few Scottish polls.

And there's more. The last couple of exit polls have been pretty accurate. But others have not, including 1992 (I still bear the scars).

And more again. Around three quarters of Scottish seats are marginal - some highly marginal, some three-way marginal. Difficult to drill down from one poll to individual seats. Keep watching!!!

If this poll is correct - IF - then Labour would require a rethink. Is it about Leave voters asserting their view in England, against Labour's relative vacillation? Or is it about the leader? To underline, let's await more figures.


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Astonishing exit poll as it affects the UK - and Scotland.

Ruth Davidson said in advance she'd skinny dip in Loch Ness if the SNP won 50 seats. Stand by Nessie.

Our exit poll reckons 55 for the SNP - almost back to the apex of 2015.

If this poll is correct - IF - then stand by for three big elements. Brexit will happen. Labour will rethink. And the SNP will exercise plan B. They will argue that Scotland's voting pattern is again being overturned.