UK Politics

Brexit vote: What could happen next?

Theresa May has survived a leadership challenge but that doesn't mean her problems have gone away.

The government has delayed the crucial vote on the Brexit deal because they were going to lose.

The PM has travelled to Brussels to seek "additional reassurance" about the backstop. That's the part of the withdrawal agreement that would prevent a "hard" border on the island of Ireland if no trade agreement is reached between the EU and UK by the end of the "transition period".

It's not clear when MPs will now get the chance to vote, but the government has promised it will be before 21 January and the Brexit deal cannot be legally implemented until it has been approved in the House of Commons.

What would happen if it was rejected?

The EU Withdrawal Act, passed by Parliament in June, sets out some rules. The government would have to produce a new plan of action within 21 days and then allow a further vote within another seven sitting days in the House of Commons.

However, the government could act much more quickly than that. And it's possible that political events would transform the situation.

Following a government defeat in the Commons on 4 December, MPs would now have more say in proposing alternatives to any plan of action - but these would still have to be put into law by the government.

The European Court of Justice has ruled that it would be legal for the UK to unilaterally revoke Article 50 to cancel Brexit (without the need for agreement from the other 27 EU countries). With the government still committed to Brexit, it's very likely that a major event such as a further referendum or change of government would have to happen before such a move.

In the event that MPs eventually do reject the Brexit deal, some of the most likely options are set out below.

1. No deal

If nothing else happens, the default position would be a no-deal Brexit. The law is already in place which means the UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019. And, in any case, EU rules mean the UK would leave then.

The government would probably want to pass some legislation to prepare for no-deal but that's not strictly essential.

If MPs aren't happy with the plan they could try to put pressure on the government to change its mind. Their ultimate sanction, if the government wouldn't budge, would be a vote of no confidence - see section four below.

2. Major renegotiation

If MPs vote against the deal, the government could propose to negotiate a new Brexit deal.

This would not be a question of carrying out minor tweaks and having a second vote. That approach now seems less realistic after the government delayed the vote so Theresa May could go to Brussels and seek clarifications.

Instead, there could be a complete renegotiation that would take some time and might well require an extension of Article 50 to delay Brexit.

This would require two key steps. First, the UK would have to make a request to the EU for an extension. This could be granted but only if all EU countries agree at a vote of the EU Council.

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Second, the government would have to table a statutory instrument to change the definition of "exit day" in the EU Withdrawal Act. MPs would get a chance to vote on this change.

If the EU refused to re-enter negotiations, the government would have to plump for one of the other options instead.

3. Call for a general election

Theresa May could decide that the best way out of the deadlock would be to hold an early general election - in order to get a political mandate for her deal.

She doesn't have the power just to call an election. But, as in 2017, she could ask MPs to vote for an early election under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

Two-thirds of all MPs would need to support the move. The earliest date for the election would be 25 working days later but it could be after that - the prime minister would choose the precise date.

As with the "renegotiate" plan, this course of action could also involve a request to the EU to extend Article 50.

And it's not the only way an election could come about.

4. Vote of no confidence

If the proposed deal is rejected the opposition could call for a formal vote of no confidence. Mrs May could even call for a vote herself to try to reinforce her authority.

The rules, under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, mean there are several possible outcomes if the government loses a formal vote of no confidence.

If no government is able to win a vote of confidence within 14 days - and that means neither the existing government nor any alternative - then there would be an early general election. The earliest possible date for the election would be 25 working days later.

However, if the government wins a confidence motion within this 14-day period, perhaps by offering some new concession, it carries on.

The final possibility is a change of government. That could mean another minority Conservative government with a different prime minister, a coalition government, or a minority government of a different party which had the agreement of others to back it in a confidence vote.

Clearly, any new government could have a different Brexit policy so the various options could be re-opened.

5. Another referendum

The government could instead choose to have another referendum.

As with a renegotiation or early election, this might well require an extension to Article 50. It's probably already too late to hold a referendum before 29 March.

And it can't just happen automatically. The rules for referendums are set out in a law called the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.

There would have to be a new piece of legislation to make a referendum happen and to determine the rules, such as who would be allowed to vote.

It couldn't be rushed through because there has to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider and advise on the referendum question.

The question is then defined in the legislation.

Once the legislation has been passed the referendum couldn't happen immediately either. There would have to be a statutory "referendum period" before the vote takes place.

Experts at University College London's Constitution Unit suggest that the minimum time for all of the required steps above is about 22 weeks.

Even if that could be shortened a little, it would still take us well beyond the end of March.

6. Other consequences

As well as the various options for what could happen with Brexit, there could be a lot of other political events going on as well.

Now Theresa May has survived a challenge to her leadership the Conservative Party's rules mean she won't face another for 12 months. But she could always decide to resign anyway if she can't get her deal through and she's not prepared to change course.

That would trigger a Conservative leadership campaign which would result in the appointment of a new prime minister.

She might also come under pressure to resign if MPs pass a "censure motion" - that would be a bit like a no confidence vote but without the same automatic consequences. Again this could lead to a change in prime minister or even a change in government.

Whoever ended up in charge would still face the same basic range of Brexit options though.

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