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No Brexit deal 'would hit NI economy by 12%'

By John Campbell
BBC News NI Economics & Business Editor

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image copyrightPA
image captionThe figures suggest that even if a trade deal with the EU is agreed, the NI economy would take an 8% hit

The Northern Ireland economy would take a 12% hit if there is no Brexit deal, a government assessment has suggested.

Assessments for each region of the UK have now been published after a partial leak last week.

The figures suggest that even if a trade deal is agreed the Northern Ireland economy would take an 8% hit.

Even in a soft Brexit, where the UK still participates in the single market, a 2.5% hit is estimated.

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The assessments do not mean the economy would shrink in absolute terms.

Instead, they look at how the economy would perform under each scenario over the next 15 years compared to current forecasts.

A government spokesperson said the document does not represent government policy and "does not consider the outcome we are seeking in the negotiations".

The spokesperson added: "This is provisional internal analysis, part of a broad ongoing programme of analysis, and further work is in progress.

"We are seeking an unprecedented, comprehensive and ambitious economic partnership - one that works for all parts of the UK. We are not expecting a no deal scenario."

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