All aboard the Super Tuesday train: New Hampshire winners and losers

Supporters wait for Ted Cruz Image copyright Reuters

Ten candidates chugged in to New Hampshire after the Iowa caucuses with hopes of success.

But now that the primary results are in, who has a ticket on the presidential train as it rolls down the coast, to South Carolina and beyond?

There are seats available for some of the contenders, but others are going to be left out in the New England cold.

Who, if anyone, won the much coveted "ticket out of New Hampshire" and will go on to contest the next states more aggressively?

Will it be Bernie Express? What about the Trump train?


Ticket punched

Bernie Sanders

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Conductor's call: The Democratic race is going to drag on for a long time, and people are climbing aboard the Bernie Express.

It's clear at this point that the Vermont senator has become the leader of a movement within the Democratic party.

He's pulling in record amounts of small-figure contributions and is rapidly building out a national campaign infrastructure. At this point he's actually outspending Hillary Clinton in South Carolina, which holds its primary in just over two weeks.

He still has the so-called Clinton firewall to deal with, as his support among the ethnic minorities that play a large part in the coming states continues to be weak. His 21-point win in New Hampshire, however, will make headlines across the country, and Democrats of all stripes are going to take notice. They may give the septuagenarian "Social Democrat" another look.

Donald Trump

Image copyright Reuters

Conductor's call: If the Republican establishment can find an emergency cord, now is the time to pull it.

One of the last threads of hope for establishment Republicans was that the New York billionaire's strong standing in the polls was an illusion. The supporters who flocked to his rallies and expressed their opinions in surveys, they hoped, would never materialise.

So much for that theory. Although Mr Trump underperformed in Iowa, where he made little investment in the ground game so essential to caucus success, his New Hampshire results exceeded expectations.

Mr Trump is rolling out of New Hampshire with a full head of steam. His lead in South Carolina all of a sudden looks very real and very formidable. The same goes for his solid standing across the South.

John Kasich

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Conductor's call: Kasich was on the verge of packing his bags for home, but instead he's off to South Carolina.

For months the Ohio governor had been an also-ran, consigned to the far edges of the stage during Republican debates. While other candidates tussled, he tried to stay above the fray and offer a more optimistic alternative based on his record in Ohio and, before that, in the US Congress.

His strategy since late July, when he was the last major candidate to enter the race, was to put all his effort into New Hampshire. A solid finish there, he theorised, would give him a chance to compete in the slate of states that followed.

Even though he finished a distant second to Mr Trump, his New Hampshire gamble paid off. Thanks to Marco Rubio's precipitous fall at the hands of Chris Christie, he opened some daylight between himself and the rest of the mainstream Republican field. He has his work cut out for him in the South, where his moderate views will be out-of-step with many conservative voters. But he's bought himself the opportunity to make his pitch - and he'll likely still be around when Ohio holds its winner-take-all primary in mid-March.


Standing on the platform

Ted Cruz

Image copyright AP

Conductor's call: Ted Cruz is riding in a sleeper car built for the long haul.

Thanks to his victory in Iowa, the Texas senator earned a "bye" in New Hampshire, where his brand of evangelical conservatism is not as popular. Barring a disastrous result, he was going to advance to the next round of states.

His showing, it turns out, was far from disastrous. Despite investing little in New Hampshire - he spent $550,000 (£346,337) in the state - he is in a tight third-place race with Jeb Bush, who spent $35m there.

Now the campaign heads to South Carolina and the slate of southern states in the 1 March Super Tuesday primary. While some of the buzz from his Iowa win has faded, he has the money and the campaign infrastructure to start competing for wins again in the very near future.

Hillary Clinton

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Conductor's call: She'll get on the train, but it's going to be a very bumpy ride ahead.

While the former secretary of state told her supporters that the campaign will roll on to the next battlegrounds, this has to be a very disheartening result. Already there is talk of shake-ups among her senior political staff and the need for a new, more focused message to voters.

Eight years ago New Hampshire saved Mrs Clinton - at least temporarily - giving her a surprise win over Barack Obama and allowing her to wage a months-long battle for the nomination. In 1992 her husband, Bill Clinton, finished a surprisingly strong second in the state, setting him on a course for the presidency.

This time New Hampshire Democrats turned their backs on a Clinton. While recent polls indicated a defeat was clearly in store, it still has to be considered a shocking upset that a self-professed socialist and long-time backbench senator bested her by such a solid margin.

Jeb Bush

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Conductor's call: His ticket cost more than $100m, but it seems like it's still valid.

During his speech on Tuesday night, the former Florida governor boasted that his campaign "is not dead" - and the crowd erupted in cheers and chants of "Jeb!"

Such is the state of Mr Bush's presidential hopes - noteworthy only because life still breathes in its body. He needed to post a finish that gave his big-money donors and supporters some reason to persevere, and he did just enough by finishing in double digits, ahead of fellow Floridian Marco Rubio.

If Mr Rubio had bested him, Mr Bush would have seen an exodus of support to the candidate many in the party still view as an acceptable mainstream alternative. Mr Bush's supporters think their man can catch the poorly funded Mr Kasich, however. It's a glimmer of hope, but it's hope nonetheless.


Running to the station

Marco Rubio

Image copyright EPA

Conductor's call: The engine is running and the train is moving, but there's a chance the bridge down the tracks has been washed out.

The Florida senator benefitted from beating expectations in Iowa, but it was expectations that beat him in New Hampshire.

Just a week ago, it looked like Mr Rubio was poised to finish a strong second in New Hampshire - a result that would have helped him consolidate establishment support and position himself as the man to take on Mr Trump and Mr Cruz in the coming primaries.

Instead Mr Rubio ended up in the middle of the pack, his momentum blunted after he was taken apart by Chris Christie in Saturday night's Republican debate.

There is still a way forward for Rubio, but he'll have rebuild momentum from scratch. Saturday night's debate in South Carolina looms very, very large.


Missed the train

Chris Christie

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Conductor's call: That's not a train whistle you hear, it's Senator Rubio's sigh of relief.

The New Jersey governor will get credit for being the man who took a hatchet to Mr Rubio's presidential hopes, but he's not going to reap the benefits. That's often the way it is when primary politics turn negative. In 2004, Democrats Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt slugged it out in Iowa, and it was John Kerry and John Edwards who surged past them on caucus night.

A sixth-place finish spells doom for Mr Christie. He has announced that he's going to head back to New Jersey to "make a decision on our next step forward". The vultures aren't just circling, they've landed next to the body.


There was a train?

Ben Carson

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He showed up in New Hampshire late and left early, not sticking around to watch the election results.

Instead, he's off to South Carolina, to get a jump start on the next primary. He can jump all he wants, but the Carson train is out of steam.

Carly Fiorina

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She can always look back fondly on her moments of glory on the debate stage in August and September. Her presidential aspirations are in a steamer trunk, where they will stay for good.