Election 2019

Exit poll 2019: What is the forecast election result in my constituency?

Exit poll graphic

The Conservatives have won a majority of 80 in Parliament with all 650 seats declared.

The exit poll had an initial forecast of 368 for the Conservatives and 191 for Labour. With all the results in the two parties had 365 and 203 seats respectively. Labour's figure includes the Speaker.

The SNP won 48 seats, against an initial forecast of 55, while the Liberal Democrats finished on 11, after being forecast to take 13 seats. Plaid Cymru took four seats, one more than predicted.

Enter your postcode to find out the final result for your constituency.

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    What is the exit poll?

    The exit poll is a way of forecasting what may happen in the general election, after voting ends but before the results are known.

    At this election researchers at 144 polling stations across England, Scotland and Wales asked people to indicate which way they voted. Scotland had only 12 sampling points so the exit poll was harder to forecast than in other parts of the country.

    A team of academics led by Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, used this and other data to estimate the vote share per party in each constituency and then to forecast each party's likelihood of winning in any given seat.

    All those individual probabilities were added together to arrive at the forecast seat totals for each party.

    The model was updated throughout the night as results came in, so seat totals and individual constituency figures changed.

    How to use this feature

    The constituency search and seat-by-seat list did show exit poll forecasts for individual constituencies, apart from those in Northern Ireland. But those initial forecasts have been replaced by the final figures.

    If the chance of the forecast outcome in a seat was 95% or higher, it was shown as a "likely" outcome. If it was between 80% and 94%, was a "possible" outcome.

    Seats where the probability for any particular party winning was lower than 80% were shown as "too close to forecast".

    When looking at the figures for the exit poll, counting all the seats predicted for a particular party in the seat-by-seat view was unlikely to match the total for that party in the current forecast section.

    This was because the seat totals are calculated by adding up the probabilities for that party, not by counting the number of predicted constituency wins. Seats categorised as "too close to forecast" are not assigned to a party in the seat-by-seat view.

    How accurate is the exit poll?

    Exit poll methodology (University of Warwick)

    Produced by Christine Jeavans, design by Natalie Smart, development by Marcos Gurgel and Scott Jarvis.

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