Wales Election 2016

Labour enters election on low poll rating, survey suggests

The Senedd Image copyright Adrian Platt/Geograph

The ruling Welsh Labour Party goes into Thursday's assembly election on its lowest poll rating since 2010, the final opinion poll of the campaign suggests.

The YouGov/ITV Wales poll puts Labour on 33% of the constituency vote.

It is the same rating as a poll by the same pollsters published at the end of April.

The fight for second place remains very close between the Welsh Conservatives and Plaid Cymru, the survey suggests.

On constituency voting the Welsh Political Barometer Poll for 2-4 May puts the parties as follows:

  • Labour: 33% (no change since the last poll conducted from 19 to 22 April)
  • Conservatives: 21% (+2)
  • Plaid Cymru: 19% (-2)
  • UKIP: 16% (+1)
  • Liberal Democrats: 8% (no change)
  • Others: 4% (+1)

Meanwhile, on regional voting the research indicates:

  • Labour: 31% (+2)
  • Plaid Cymru: 20% (-2)
  • Conservatives: 20% (+1)
  • UKIP: 16% (+1)
  • Liberal Democrats: 6% (-2)
  • Greens: 4% (no change)
  • Others: 4% (+1)

Prof Roger Scully of Cardiff University said, if the results were applied in an uniform way across Wales, Labour would win 27 seats, Plaid Cymru 12, the Conservative 11, UKIP 8 and the Lib Dems two.

He said: "Here we see Labour remaining well ahead of the field.

"Plaid Cymru will be disappointed to slip back into third [in voting intention] behind the Conservatives; the Tories, by contrast, appear to have checked any erosion in their support evident in the last couple of Barometer polls.

"Meanwhile UKIP's support remains impressively robust."

The poll for ITV and Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre had a sample of 1,326 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from 2-4 May 2016.

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