Time is short as UK and EU try to define new relationship

EU and UK flag in front of Big Ben Image copyright Reuters
Image caption The European Parliament has overwhelmingly backed the terms of the UK's departure from the EU

With the UK almost out of the EU a new phase of negotiations is set to begin with predictions that it will produce a new 'cliff edge' later this year.

"There's always a bit of brinkmanship with the European Union", former Brexit Secretary David Davis told Newsnight, "and we must be prepared for that".

On Wednesday the European Parliament ratified the withdrawal agreement, the last legal obstacle to Brexit. But while the so-called divorce deal has been done, the battle over the future relationship is just getting under way.

"The time is dramatically limited"

Adding to the likelihood of a crunch towards the end of 2020 (when the transition period under the agreement ratified expires) is the complexity of the consensus needed and the few months available to get it.

Danuta Huebner MEP, a former commissioner in Brussels and member of the European Parliament's Brexit Steering Group, notes "the time is dramatically limited", with there really only being eight months from the start of negotiations until October when any deal will have to be ratified by the EU.

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Claims No 10 'sitting on' Russian interference report

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during annual news conference in Moscow, Russia Image copyright Reuters
Image caption President Vladimir Putin has denied claims of Russian interference

There is disquiet in Parliament that a sensitive report on Russian covert actions against the UK, including allegations of electoral interference, is being sat on by No 10.

The report includes evidence from UK intelligence services concerning Russian attempts to influence the outcome of the 2016 EU referendum and 2017 general election.

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Gulf crisis uniquely difficult strategic moment for UK

  • 22 July 2019
  • From the section UK
Grace 1 oil tanker Image copyright Reuters
Image caption Could the release of the tanker Grace I from custody in Gibraltar change the current dynamic?

The Gulf crisis catches the UK at a uniquely difficult strategic moment.

Its military means are quite limited, Iran's are greater than many might think, and the option of defaulting into its usual partnership with the US is not straightforward because of disagreements over the wisdom of breaching the nuclear deal.

Read full article Gulf crisis uniquely difficult strategic moment for UK

UK's special forces set for new Russia mission

  • 13 June 2019
  • From the section UK
A US Special Forces soldier shoots with an assault rifle on a firing range Image copyright Getty Images

The SAS and other UK Special Forces (UKSF) are poised to receive a new mission countering Russian and other forces around the world.

The plan is called 'Special Operations Concept' and has been drawn up by the senior officer in charge of the special forces, the Director Special Forces (DSF).

Read full article UK's special forces set for new Russia mission

Blair: Social democracy needs 'narrative about the future'

Tony Blair
Image caption Social democracy must have "a narrative about the future" says former Prime Minister Tony Blair

"The central problem of social democracy is simple", former prime minister Tony Blair said. "They've got to have a narrative about the future."

By his formulation then, the crisis of Europe's centre-left may have been long and painful, but it need not be terminal.

Read full article Blair: Social democracy needs 'narrative about the future'

Salisbury attack 'evidence' of Russian weapon stockpile

  • 4 March 2019
  • From the section UK
People dressed in British Army fatigues walk away from the Skripals' house in Salisbury Image copyright PA

The Salisbury attack demonstrated that Russia continues to research, manufacture and stockpile chemical weapons, US state department officials have told BBC Newsnight.

If true, Russia would be in violation of one of the major post-Cold War arms control treaties.

Read full article Salisbury attack 'evidence' of Russian weapon stockpile

Brexit: Is Brussels ready to give UK more time?

French President Macron and German Chancellor Merkel speak at an EU summit Image copyright AFP

Publicly, the EU27 have told Theresa May the clock is ticking and that preparations for a no-deal Brexit are intensifying. Privately, the talk is all about extending the Article 50 period and defusing that time bomb due to go off on 29 March.

Brexiteers have long told us that the EU27 have much to fear from no deal, and in this they are right.

Read full article Brexit: Is Brussels ready to give UK more time?

Post-Brexit: Will a new leader of the EU emerge?

Angela Merkel at the Bundestag Image copyright Michele Tantussi

The prospect of Brexit looms large in Berlin these days and people are not happy about it. "We lose Britain, and we keep Italy: it's grotesque", one former minister commented ruefully to me.

That barbed remark lays bare a real anxiety among Germans, that somehow the European Union's centre of gravity will shift once the UK has gone, that a delicate balance will be upset, and it will not be in Berlin's favour.

Read full article Post-Brexit: Will a new leader of the EU emerge?

Yemen: will calls for peace lead to more violence?

Houthi Image copyright Reuters
Image caption Houthi followers demonstrating

At last there is the chance of meaningful Yemen peace talks, so we'd be well advised to expect an intensification of violence.

How does that make any sense? It comes down to the desire of the warring parties to influence the negotiation, by making last minute gains.

Read full article Yemen: will calls for peace lead to more violence?

Brexit: Article 50 is not fit for purpose

Brexit graphic Image copyright Getty Images

Perhaps the greatest fallacy in the UK's Brexit referendum was that there was a viable way to leave the European Union.

Each side in the campaign had its own reasons for wanting to ignore the fact that the process set out under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty was at best vague, at worst unfeasible.

Read full article Brexit: Article 50 is not fit for purpose