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Formula One Weather Forecast: Turkish Grand Prix 2010

Ian Fergusson | 06:35 UK time, Tuesday, 25 May 2010

Istanbul Park, 28-30 May 2010 (Round 7)

(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: Sunday 30 May, 14:20hrs BST)

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Forecast / Nowcast updates:

Sunday, 14:20BST: If you are wondering why the shower seems so lame, refer to my remark before this race, in the comments below: "...the conditions will tend to favour any light showers largely evaporating before reaching the ground."

Sunday, 13:32hrs BST: Re my comment below about the small risk of showers.... well, we're watching a shower forming south of the circuit in a convergence zone; will this one shower hit the circuit? Looks possible!

Sunday, 10:25hrs BST: Current conditions at the circuit, as photographed by my colleague Sarah Holt: https://twitpic.com/1sf5u8

Sunday, 10:00hrs BST: Very warm, dry conditions this morning across the circuit and the original forecast for today continues to hold firm with little amendment. Increasing amounts of high cirrus cloud will become evident from the west through the afternoon, making the sunshine somewhat hazier with time. There's continuing inter-model agreement for the risk of showers to remain extremely low and ambient temperature to reach around 28C. A moderate breeze developing (much like on Saturday), predominantly northerly.

Thursday, 20:50hrs BST: No significant changes to add to the forecast I posted earlier this week. Well, that makes a change, for my F1 weather blogs this season!

Inter- (and intra) forecast model continuity has been pretty good for the best part of a week, since I wrote the initial entry.

We're set for fairly hot conditions (approaching or even exceeding 30C ambient most afternoons); generally a lot of strong sunshine and a very, very small risk of any showers, despite the periodically thundery conditions reliably forecast out across parts of the Balkans, Greece and some parts of eastern Turkey.

The model agreement keeps this threat firmly over in the European side of the Bosphorus / Sea of Marmara and - on the Asiatic side - a long way eastwards of Istanbul, too.

As earlier noted, worth keeping an eye on the track temperatures through the practice sessions and consequent evidence of tyre degradation... could be a real factor, in my view.

Hope you enjoy our BBC Red Button and Online coverage tomorrow (Friday) morning, for FP1 from 07:55hrs local time!

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Current Forecast Headlines:

Friday: Sunny and dry;  Max 30C. Winds light, N.

Saturday: Sunny spells; variable cloud cover and dry; Max 30C. Winds light, NE.

Sunday: Sunny and dry; Max 28C. Winds light-moderate, N-NE. 

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Dry and fairly hot conditions look set to dominate the weather throughout this next event at the Istanbul Park Circuit, located just southeast of the Turkish capital.

After the rather cool conditions experienced at various races this year - most notably in China - it'll prove a very different challenge this time, as the teams take to architect Hermann Tilke's sweeping, undulating and much-praised circuit, which hosted it's inaugural Grand Prix in 2005. It's one of four anticlockwise races being held during this year's race calendar (check out the video sequence, below).

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Ambient temperatures here in Pendik, Akfirat County, will climb into the high twenties celsius each day; potentially reaching 30C at times on Friday and Saturday. With strong sunshine and generally well-broken cloud, the track temperature will soar to the highest values we've seen at any race weekend in 2010 since Bahrain.

I've been keeping across some to-and-fro over the last 3 days in the broadscale synoptic developments, but the various forecast models we employ are now settling into general agreement, with a strong probability of dry weather prevailing.

Unsettled, showery / thundery conditions will be affecting parts of Greece and the Balkans during the race weekend; similarly, there's fairly consistent signal for showers (possibly thundery) at times further eastwards across Turkey. However, the current crop of model ensembles indicate that these are very unlikely around the circuit itself, so there's a high likelihood of dry running throughout each session.

Further forecast detail (and any change to the emphasis) will follow here on the blog as we approach Friday.

 

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