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Fine end to September & more on rare solar cycle

Paul Hudson

Fine end to September


It’s been an unsettled and often cool September, but the jet stream is on the move northwards in the next few days, allowing high pressure to build across the UK, which will lead us into a very pleasant spell of autumn weather.


At this time of the year, the main forecasting headache is likely to be the extent of mist and fog development by night, and how quickly it will clear during the day.


But the sun still has strength, and warm sunshine is expected to break through in most areas this weekend, lasting for much of next week, although cloud amounts will be variable at times.


More on current rare solar cycle


Following on from last week’s piece on NASA’s forecast of a very weak solar cycle, it is interesting to note that one of the possible consequences in terms of regional climate could be magnified warming in the Arctic region.


The winter of 2009/2010, when cold air was forced southwards across our latitudes, went hand in hand with a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO).


Negative AO's are thought likely to happen more often in winter as a result of prolonged weak solar activity.


The pattern would allow warmer than average conditions to develop across the Arctic, which is likely to exacerbate the declining trend in Arctic ice seen since the late 1970’s.


To that end there’s been a big response to last week’s article, so some of you may be interested in a research paper co-authored by well-known climate scientists such as Michael Mann in 2001.


It’s titled ‘solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder minimum’ and offers an interesting insight into climate patterns during the ‘mini Ice age’ of the late 17th century during the Maunder solar minimum.


It can be read by clicking HERE


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