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Met Office global forecasts too warm in 13 of last 14 years

Paul Hudson

The global temperature in 2013 was 0.486C above the 1961-1990 average based on the HADCRUT measure, figures released by the Met Office show.


This makes 2013 provisionally the 9th warmest year in data which goes back to 1880


This compares with a headline anomaly prediction of 0.57C.


It means that so far this century, of 14 yearly headline predictions made by the Met Office Hadley centre, 13 have been too warm.


It’s worth stressing that all the incorrect predictions are within the stated margin of error, but having said that, they have all been on the warm side and none have been too cold.


The 2013 global temperature also means that the Met Office’s projection that half the years between 2010 and 2015 would be hotter than the hottest year on record (which on the HADCRUT measure was in 1998), issued around the time of the Copenhagen climate conference in 2009, is already incorrect.


The Met Office believe one of the reasons for this ‘warm bias’ in their annual global projections is the lack of observational data in the Arctic circle, which has been the fastest warming area on earth.


They also suggest another reason why the global surface temperature is falling short of their projections is because some of the heat is being absorbed in the ocean beneath the surface.


You can read more on the issue of ‘missing heat’ by clicking here.


The global average temperature in 2014 is expected to be between 0.43 °C and 0.71 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C, with a central estimate of 0.57 °C, according to the Met Office.


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