This will be the most exciting French election in a generation. It is the changing of the Old Guard at the Elysée Palace; time to vote in the new president of the 5th Republic. But whether that will be Nicolas Sarkozy or Ségolène Royal is almost impossible to predict.

Rarely have two candidates been better matched. Sarkozy's relentless energy and ambition are equalled by Royal's steely determination to be the first woman to storm the Elysée.


Satirists may mock Royal's "Would you ask me that if I were a man?" response to many questions, and her insistence that her opinions are "those of the French people" (her reply on being asked whether Turkey should join the EU). But Royal's way of reaching out to the voters has made many on the left and in the centre inclined to vote for her. Currently the candidates are neck-and-neck, with 48% for 'Ségo' versus 'Sarko's' 52%.

If Royal has managed to bring up four children while making a career within France's macho political elite, some say, she might do an excellent job of running the country

Women like the fact that, for the first time, a serious presidential candidate is female. If Royal has managed to bring up four children while making a career within France's macho political elite, some say, she might do an excellent job of running the country - with the added bonus of looking exceptionally presentable on the world stage.

The problem for Royal is what she has said on the world stage so far. Aware that foreign affairs were seen as her weakness, she recently began a tour of the globe - starting with the Middle East, then China and latterly Canada.
In each country, she has been accused of committing gaffes, from praising the Chinese justice system for its speed (French human rights activists were appalled), to calling for a "free and sovereign Quebec", thus upsetting the usually even-tempered Canadians.


On foreign policy, Sarkozy is more sure-footed, though his admiration for British Prime Minister Tony Blair, and recent photo-opportunity with George Bush at the White House, further alienated the 'anti-liberal' vote.

It is true that Sarkozy is an Atlanticist, who would try to foster closer ties with Washington and London, though without wanting to lose France's
traditional influence in Europe. Sarkozy has huge appeal on the right, even on the far right. He is a superb performer who can win any debate. His speeches to the party faithful are almost Thatcherite in their exhortations to the French to roll up their sleeves and get back to work.

Sarkozy's UMP party machine has learnt much from Britain's New Labour about rebuttal and getting your message across early

But Sarkozy's sometimes confrontational, self-assured style turns off as many voters as it turns on. And this is likely to be one of the dirtiest, most abrasive campaigns yet. Sarkozy's UMP party machine has learnt much from Britain's New Labour about rebuttal and getting your message across early and often.
Royal's team of advisers is less cohesive.


Perhaps most interesting to some voters is the question of what drives the two candidates. There has been much speculation in the French press as to whether both had unhappy childhoods, and if their difficult relationship with an absent (Sarkozy) or critical father (Royal) may have shaped both.

Whoever wins, there will be a change of generation, emphasis and style at the Elysée Palace. Whether there is any real and much-needed economic reform in France will depend entirely on whether the French people allow it. Sarko or Ségo may become President, but as everyone in France knows - in the end, it's the streets that rule.

Caroline Wyatt has been BBC Paris Correspondent since 2003. Previous postings include Berlin, Bonn and Moscow. She has also reported from Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel, Chechnya and Kosovo, and has presented The World Tonight and Newshour.

Throughout April BBC World Service will broadcast extensive coverage and related programming about France and the elections