Monday 06 August, 2001
Population Predictions
Researchers in Austria have predicted that the world's population will peak in the year 2070, with slightly under nine billion people living on the planet, compared with just over six billion now.
They estimate that by the end of this century, even developing countries will have ageing populations.
Science In Action looks at what sort of a world we can expect if their calculations prove correct.
The number of people living on the Earth has a huge effect on the planet. With limited resources available, population growth could lead to crisis.
A new study now suggests that the world's population may be heading for a peak in less than 70 years' time, according to estimates published in the journal Nature.
Explaining the report’s significance, principal scientist, Wolfgang Lutz from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria said:
‘This is the first scientific study of the timing of the end of world population and regional population growth and about the population levels at which they will peak.’
Population’s Centre Of Gravity
The new study also suggests that by the year 2100, the population could be on its way down from about 8.4 billion - that's one billion short of the latest United Nations prediction.
One billion fewer people has implications in all sorts of areas – health care, politics, the earlier rise of “grey power” and not least for the environment. But, as the number of people initially increases, the structures of our societies may well change too.
In developed countries, there are more and more old people, as medical advances mean that we are living longer.
Families are also having fewer children, and so eventually the number of people in the developed world - particularly Europe and Japan - will decrease, and the population's centre of gravity will shift much further south.
The United Nations had initially assumed a replacement level of two children per mother but, according to the new report, countries with declining populations have already dropped below that, leading Wolfgang Lutz to comment:
| ‘We assume that as a society modernizes, the fertility rate goes down to between one point five and two children per woman.’ | |
Hazards
The study suggests that South Asia will be the region that has the biggest population in 100 years time.
In countries such as Bangladesh, which is very low lying, this could have enormous environmental implications, as they are particularly vulnerable to threats such as rising sea levels.
And as Tim 'O' Reardon from Britain’s University of East Anglia explains such factors have a much wider economic affect. He explains:
‘As you have those hazards affecting people, not only do you get tremendous problems of death and disease, which has a huge affect not only on people’s well being, but also on the health of the economy and international trading.’
‘The more that Bangladesh becomes non-economic [sic], the more it is difficult to think of how you can invest in it and put trade into it and it will probably get worse because the international investment community will turn their backs on such countries.'
Resources
The initial increase in people will also lead to an increasing demand for resources- food in particular.
Professor Tim Dyson from the London School of Economics says that, even with many more of us, we'll still face the same problems as we do now:
‘Provided that the yields continue to increase at the rates that they have been doing, we should be able to produce enough food for a population of let's say eight billion. The techniques exist.’
‘Having said that, that does not mean to say that in 30 years' time there will not be, as indeed there are today, several hundred million people who don't have access to a reasonable diet.'
Grey Matter
As fewer babies are born and life expectancy increases, the study estimates that more than a third of people will be over 60 by the end of the century.
In some parts - for instance in Japan – over 60s will account for more than half of the population.
However, with continued medical advances, population experts say the older generation will be healthier, they will be able to contribute to society much more than in previous years, and therefore need to rely much less on others.
Whilst it is impossible to predict what will actually happen, this new model will assist policy-makers and will be invaluable in helping to prepare for a whole range of changes in what remains an uncertain future.
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| Population Redistribution |
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The model of the future set out by the International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis shows a huge geographic redistribution of the population.
Europe is set to decrease from its current 10% share to 6% by 2100, meanwhile Africa is expected to increase form 13% to 22%. |
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