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| The
World Economy |
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Listen
here |
The big economic issue for the world in this new
century will be the huge gap between rich and poor.
About 16% of humanity in the richer countries are
better off than at any time in history. However,
more than 1.3 billion people are living on a dollar
a day or less. Consequently, the UN has set a target
to reduce the number of people living in absolute
poverty by half by 2015. Indeed, economists think
there is a good chance that absolute poverty will
be eliminated within a generation.
Today, the countries of the OECD account for more
than 60% of global wealth. However within 20 years,
the OECD's own forecasts show that its share will
be only 30%. The OECD countries will be richer than
they are today, but their share of global wealth
will have fallen. At the same time, living standards
in the big five developing economies are forecast
to rise. This means that, by 2020, China, India,
Brazil, Indonesia and Russia will between them account
for 30% of global GDP.
The change will bring an important shift in the
global balance of economic power. In the 21st century
the wealthiest part of the world will have to work
in partnership with strong competitors among the
developing countries. However, a big question mark
remains over the prospects for sub-Saharan Africa.
Some countries in this region could see dramatic
improvements in living standards but, for others,
the living standards may drop even more.
The Information Age, and especially the role of
the Internet, will have a major impact on economic
activity in the 21st century. The "weightless" products
of the Knowledge Economy will become as important
in wealth creation as manufacturing and raw material
production. Brainpower and creativity will drive
the new economy, empowering dynamic individuals
to compete with major companies.
Indeed, some developing countries may be able to
use the new economy to catch up with the richer
countries. In the 21st century, the rule of law,
open markets, education and democracy will be the
basis for future wealth creation. |
| Listen
to Noriko
Hama, Economist talks about the future of World
Economies |
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| Future
of Democracy |
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here |
Democracy is in fashion. Statistics show that nearly sixty
per cent of adults worldwide are able to vote in democratic
elections. But all too often these rather impressive figures
represent a triumph of form over substance. A country
may have held a multi-party election but that doesn't
turn it into a flourishing democracy. There is a well-documented
difference between an entrenched liberal democracy with
freedom of the press and an electoral democracy where
power is still in the hands of a corrupt elite.
The cheerleaders of democracy are watching anxiously to
see how many of these new democracies survive over the
next few decades. The threat that a disillusioned public
will vote for a return to authoritarian rule always hovers
in the wing. This is especially true for a country like
Russia that seems to be stuck in a painful half way position
between electoral and liberal democracy.
Russia is being watched by China for whom economic growth
is the priority. The question for China and for other
authoritarian governments is whether economic success
can be achieved without having to accept a degree of political
liberalisation.
If democracy is to flourish in the next hundred years,
its benefits, economic and political, have to be tangible
to citizens of elected governments throughout the world.
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| Listen
to Professor
John Gray, Profesor of European Thought at LSE discusses
government in the 21st Century |
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| War
and Peace |
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Listen
here |
Real wars will be more like computer games in the future
for there won't be any blood on the screen. A digital
battle in 2030 could be won before it is even fought.
This is because one side's information systems will have
been destroyed by the enemy's computer hackers before
the battle started. In this kind of war, knowledge will
be more important than courage on the battlefield. The
fog of war won't be smoke, carnage and confusion. It will
be a digital fog and, as computers crash, mislead and
even change sides, there will be no alternative but to
surrender.
Some military analysts think that the digital age will
see a revolution in military affairs. It could be as far-reaching
as the invention of gunpowder. For if there was a digital
war, only the United States would be really equipped to
fight it.
Consequently, the weaker of the two sides will use terror,
blackmail and propaganda to match their opponent's military
strength. In this kind of conflict, the civilians in these
asymmetric wars will be more at risk than the military.
The new wars will produce more civilian than military
casualties, a trend which we see already in today's wars.
The soldiers of the future will feel much safer than they
did in the wars of the 20th century. However, they will
have far more responsibility than the soldiers of World
War One. They may not be fighting for their own nation
but to protect the human rights of civilians in the world's
troublespots. The battlefield of the future will be complicated
by moral questions as never before.
Nuclear weapons, the supreme terror weapons of the 20th
century, will not have disappeared, and may become even
more dangerous. The chances of a nuclear exchange will
increase in the 21st century. If nuclear war happens,
it will not lead to Armageddon. It will be a regional
nuclear war, fought between the minor nuclear powers.
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| Listen
to Professor Chris
Gray, Expert in Cyborology and its influence in the future
of politics and warfare |
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| Rights
for All |
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Listen
here |
Most people will agree that the principle of human rights
is universal. It is unaffected by the culture that we
are brought up in. However it is the emphasis that that
are placed on rights which differ from society to society.
Many people would argue that the observance of human rights
must not be conditional. But even those who spend their
lives working in the field of human rights acknowledge
the difficulties. Abolishing child labour, for example,
could create more problems than it would solve. It might
force children of impoverished families, out on to the
streets, to earn money.
For a long time there has been a clash between economic
development and human rights, with global corporations
largely pursuing their own objectives. This is, often
seemingly, at the expense of the people that they are
employing. Even now, there are few businesses who will
risk losing a valuable contract by challenging a host
Government's on it's human rights record.
Nations have made progress towards setting up institutions
that will safeguard the rights of their citizens. Yet,
with no international policeman to regulate the regulators,
nations continue to pursue agendas that disregard the
interests of their citizens. |
| Listen
to Archbishop
Desmond Tutu talk about Human rights in the 21st Century
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| The
Balance of Power |
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Listen
here |
In the second half of the twentieth century the world
was divided along the fault line created by the clash
between the communist Soviet Union and the capitalist
United States. James Baker, the last Cold War American
Secretary of State, says that his country's foreign policy
was guided by the straightforward maxim that if the Soviets
were for it, then the Americans were against it.
Politicians and people are trying to find their way in
a new world that has none of the old signposts. There
is now only one superpower, America. Experts predict that
much of the foreign policy of the next fifty years will
be motivated by the desire of countries such as Russia
and China not to let America get its own way on everything.
One thing hasn't changed. Nuclear power is still a potent
status symbol. The admission by Pakistan and India that
they're both members of the nuclear club will change the
regional balance of power. For India it's also brought
the prospect of improved relations with the United States,
both politically and economically, after decades of Cold
War hostility.
But amidst all this talk of new loyalties and alliances,
there is a new force to be reckoned with: Globalisation.
Some commentators believe it is now the defining global
system. The veteran British Labour MP, Tony Benn, believes
the improvements in communications and access to information
will put power in the hands of the people. They will be
able to simply bypass governments. Others fear that the
system will create an underclass of people who have no
chance of ever going on-line. They predict it is these
people who will be responsible for the next shift in the
balance of power in this new century. |
| Listen
to Olara Otunno,
Lawyer and UN representative for Children's rights |
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