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Wednesday 31 December 2003
World population
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The United Nations has published predictions about the size and age of the world's population three hundred years from now. This report from Greg Barrow: |
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The UN publishes these long range projections to help environmental scientists and policy makers assess the implications of dramatic changes in the world's population in the years ahead. These latest predictions published by the population division of the UN's Department of Economic and Social Affairs suggest that if fertility levels stay the same there'll be a huge expansion of the global population three centuries from now to more than one hundred and thirty trillion people.
The new report says this increase is a clear indication that current levels of high fertility are unsustainable. But this is the extreme scenario and the report suggests that if fertility levels stabilise at around two children for every woman the population increase will be more manageable reaching just over nine billion people in three centuries time. The report says that whatever the overall increase, the world's population is likely to be significantly older with the median age rising from twenty six years as it is now to fifty in three hundred years' time. Almost a quarter of this population will live in Africa while India, China and the United States will continue to be the most heavily populated countries of the world.
Listen to the words
long range projections
estimates of what something would be like a long time in the future
assess the implications
consider and make a judgement by looking at the facts
predictions
if you make a prediction you say what you think might happen
one hundred and thirty trillion
130,000,000,000,000 - a trillion is a million million
current levels of high fertility
the large number of children that couples are having at present
extreme scenario
the way in which the situation may develop if the changes are considerable / large
stabilise
here, stop rising and remain at the same level
whatever
without being specific about
median age
the value of the middle number of a list of numbers arranged in numerical order
most heavily populated
with the greatest number of people per square kilometre
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