Summer
2002: hot and sunny or a thundery washout?
|
 |
| Hot
and sunny or a thundery washout? |
|
|
Doom
and gloom was the forecast for Summer 2002, or more precisely, rain
and gloom ... What was the Met Office playing at?
Read on to get the low-down on long-range forecasts.
|
|
|
|
|
How could
the Met Office have been so insensitive?
|
 to
the end of July … it is likely to be warmer than normal over
most areas, but wetter than normal over the western parts
of the country.
|
| The
forecast that caused the furore |
In fact,
the resulting furore seems to have been caused entirely by the local
press with headlines screaming about a summer washout and a battering
from tropical storms.
Indeed,
on the back of foot-and-mouth disease it is easy to see how hoteliers
and trader could become upset.
But did the Met Office really issue such a gloomy forecast? You can
check the forecast for yourself at the Met
Office’s website.
But all those pages of newspaper copy were generated by a one-sentence
forecast which predicted that:
"to the end of July … it is likely to be warmer than normal over most
areas, but wetter than normal over the western parts of the country."
The prospect of warmer weather was conveniently ignored and a prediction
that was issued for the western half of the United Kingdom as a whole
was interpreted solely in terms of the West Country.
So
if the press cannot be trusted to interpret
these
forecasts, what should those interested in the long-range weather
make of them?
 |
| Richard
Angwin - Wiltshire weather is his expertise. |
The Met
Office stressed when they issued the first of these forecasts that
they were experimentary. But it was felt that we had the expertise
as a world-renowned forecasting organisation to give some guidance
to the public and commercial organisations.
There are, in fact, many such forecasts freely
available on the internet. Ant Veal collates a mass of weather information,
including long-range forecasts on his Great
Weather website.
Even former Met Office forecaster Bill Giles is at it. He produces
three-monthly forecasts on the BBC
Weather website.
Many of these forecasters claim great things about their accuracy.
Not surprising those predicting the warmest summer or the coldest
winter often make their way into the national media.
Careful
checking often reveals that their accuracy is highly questionable.
But by the time we realise that a ‘scorching summer’ is not going
to materialise we have forgotten about the original forecast.
Those with better memories can be forgiven for thinking that all such
forecasts emanate from the Met Office and we get the blame!
For the time being the Met Office is standing by its prediction.
So does that really mean that the West Country is in for a rotten
summer?
Not really, a prediction of above average rainfall and temperatures
implies that some of this rain could come in the form of thundery
showers. As such, summer here in the West Country is likely to be
just as variable as it always is.
Richard Angwin
Points West Weatherman
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
View a 
More
