If this is your first visit to this site then you probably come with a vague idea of what El Nino is. If you're a repeat visitor then you may well be fairly well informed, (see links).
So it's time for an update: For a few months, evidence of a weak El Nino developing has been seen in the Pacific. Sea surface temperatures on the dateline, at the equator are about 2 degrees Celsius above long-term average, (MOAA data from 17th November). But coastal upwelling off the coast of Peru is not evident.
This weak event is expected to persist into early 2005 and the normal forecast weather from a positive ENSO is:
1. Drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia (through early 2005), northern and northeastern Australia (November 2004-February 2005), and southeastern Africa (November 2004-March 2005). 2. If the warming in the tropical Pacific strengthens and spreads eastward to the South American coast, then wetter-than-average conditions would be expected in coastal areas of Ecuador and northern Peru during the first few months of 2005, and drier-than-average conditions would be expected in the eastern Amazon late this year and spread to Northeast Brazil for spring 2005.
Interestingly for me, this warmer sea surface has already given rise to a very active typhoon season, and yet another tropical storm is forecast to develop into a typhoon in the next few days. It's travelling west-north-west towards the Philippines. This is late in the year for a typhoon but this season may simply merge into next...
