As a large storm swirls towards southeast Brazil, forecasters continue to disagree as to whether this is the South Atlantic's first hurricane.

The storm system first began to show its hand in the middle of last week as a rapidly deepening area of low pressure in the South Atlantic. As the central pressure of the low has continued to fall, the wind strength around its periphery has increased and a clear 'eye' has become visible on satellite imagery.

The question remains however - is this a hurricane?

The US National Hurricance Centre in Florida say yes it is. They estimate that the winds around the system have reached between 75 and 80 mph (120-130km/h), making it a fully fledged Category 1 hurricane.

However, Brazilian scientists dispute this, saying the storm had top winds of 50 to 55 mph (80-90 km/h), meaning it's far below the 75mph threshold of a hurricane.

This is certainly a difficult debate to clear up as part of the problem with identifying the storm's actual characteristics is it's location. As it is the first system of such a depth which has been monitored in the South Atlantic, suitable facilities here are limited.

Brazil has no hurricane hunter aircraft to fly into the storm to gather data and the US National Hurricane Centre has no planes anywhere near the area. Hence both have been basing their estimates on satellite data with no actual quantitative information.

It hasn't just been the nature of the storm that has been in dispute. The forecast has differed greatly too. The US forecasters have been steering the storm towards land and warning of the potential for damage and disruption. Meanwhile the Brazilians were favouring the storm dissipating before making landfall and not causing any great problems.

The next 24 hours will certainly prove to be very telling as the storm carves out its path. A Brazilian news source has recently issued a statement claiming the centre of the storm has already pushed into Santa Catarina. This report indicates trees and roofs have been damaged by strong winds and that some are without power. There are also fears for the lives of seven fishermen.

As the debate and storm continue to rage, it will be the storm itself that gives us the answers. Watch this space.

Weather News from the last five days:
27/03/2004
26/03/2004
25/03/2004
24/03/2004
23/03/2004

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