National Hurricane Center predicts active season by Steph Ball
On Thursday the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its forecast for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.
With less than two weeks to the start of the season, the NHC are predicting that 2008 will be more active than normal with 12-16 named storms of which six to nine could progress to hurricane strength. Of these hurricanes they say that two to five are likely to become major hurricanes of Category 3 or above according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. This corresponds to winds of 111mph (179km/h) or more.
After more recent predictions have not come to fruition, raising criticism, the NHC has for the first time included a probability in their forecast. While the last two years have seen average or below-average activity, they have warned that there is no reason to believe this will continue and have urged the importance of being prepared.
Over the last two years the US has come off relatively unscathed with no hurricanes making landfall at all in 2006. Last year the season yielded six hurricanes of which three became powerful lashing the Caribbean and Central America. Only one made landfall in the US though, Humberto, which was relatively weak.
Although the last two years have been quiet in the US, the public need only remember the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, to understand the importance of these predictions.
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