Tropical activity on the up again by Alex Deakin
After a brief quiet spell tropical activity is on the up again in the world’s oceans. Three tropical cyclones are active across the Pacific, and in the Atlantic Ocean forecasters are carefully watching three separate areas of tropical activity.
Typhoon Mawar, in the northwest Pacific, is causing the most concern at present. Currently located 150 miles (240 km) of the island of Iwo Jima and with winds already gusting over 140 mph (225 km/h), it is expected to strengthen further as it tracks towards mainland Japan. Mawar is forecast to make landfall on the southern coast of Honshu later on Wednesday, and by then could be a dangerous typhoon with winds gusting over 170 mph (272 km/h).
Hot on the heels of Mawar is Tropical Storm 12W. With winds only gusting to 60 mph (96 km/h) it is nowhere near as strong as its close neighbour. In fact 12W’s proximity to Typhoon Mawar means it is struggling to intensify, and is more likely to dissipate in open water on Wednesday.
On the opposite side of the Pacific, Hurricane Hilary is a Category 2 storm sitting off the coast of Mexico. Hilary is running parallel to the coast, and while its main circulation is not currently expected move inland, the outer rain bands are affecting parts of Mexico’s southwestern coast. Hilary will strengthen further over the next two days before starting to weaken.
Across in the Atlantic basin there are no tropical cyclones at present, but forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami are watching
several areas of thundery showers.
To the north of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico there’s a disorganised area of showers. Conditions in the atmosphere currently have the right ingredients for cyclone development, but there are no signs of that happening at the moment. There’s a similar area of showers in the Caribbean Sea.
An area of thunderstorms that is expected to develop is currently just to the south of the Cape Verde islands, off the coast of West Africa. It is in an area of the Atlantic that is a favoured breeding ground for tropical cyclones, as the warm waters provide a rich supply of heat energy and moisture that cyclones need to develop.
Heat energy and moisture are going to help bring us some rather unsettled weather here in the UK this coming week. Remnants of tropical air are wrapped in low pressure systems that will cross the country tonight, and on Wednesday. Tonight’s depression is a relatively weak affair but will bring rain to all parts of the country by the end of Monday. Warm tropical air can hold more moisture than air that is cooler, and the moisture content of the air associated with tonight’s low will make help to it feel quite muggy despite the cloud and rain.
Wednesday’s low is a more active, rapidly deepening depression that will run across the north, bringing heavy rain and strong winds if not gales to much of the UK. It will feel more like October than August, and if weather-dependent outdoor activities are being planned for Wednesday it would be wise to postpone them!
As well as here on the website, updates on the stormy weather can be found on p405 of Ceefax and BBCi.
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