New model to predict to the severity of an Atlantic hurricane season by Jay Wynne
The start of the Atlantic hurricane season is still just over a month away, but British scientists are claiming that they have devised the first accurate model to predict the severity of a hurricane season.
The season runs from June 1 to November 30, but when studied it was found that 86 percent of hurricane strikes and 96 percent of the worst ones occurred after August 1. The most important discovery was that anomalies in the regional wind pattern in July give a clear indication about the strength of storms for August onwards.
The model was tested on historical data from 1950 – 2003, analysing wind strength and hurricane clear up costs. It was found to be accurate 73 percent of the time at predicting whether a season would be above or below average in severity. The model had its first real-life run last year and was accurate in forecasting an above average season.
The computer model is based on wind patterns at heights ranging from 750 to 7,500 metres (2,400 to 24,000 feet) over North America, the North Atlantic and the tropical East Pacific. Once these unusual pressure systems are established in July they tend to remain throughout the rest of the hurricane season. These pressure systems then steer a storm either towards land or keep it over the sea.
One example of this is the Bermudan high pressure system. If it is stronger than usual then storms are steered towards US landfall, if it is weaker than normal then storms tend to stay out in the Atlantic.
Hurricanes are the biggest cause of natural disasters in the US. The average annual bill for hurricane damage is about 5.6 billion dollars. Companies may be able to use this information to buy extra insurance cover and reduce their losses.
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