Will it be a good year for the monsoon? by Elizabeth Saary
Although the start of the Asian monsoon season is a good month or so away, predictions are already being made about whether or not it will be a good one.
The south-westerly monsoon which begins in southern India in mid to late May and spreads northwards through the summer months brings much needed rain to south Asia. The rains are vital to the agriculturally based economies of many countries.
In the past few decades it has come to light that the El Nino and La Nina phenomena (warming and cooling of the Pacific Ocean) can play an important role when it comes to the monsoon.
During past El Nino and La Nina years the summer rains have been very erratic with some areas receiving below average rainfall leading to drought and others being inundated leading to devastating floods.
These phenomena have far reaching effects on weather patterns right across the globe so there are a number of agencies studying them.
A recent prediction from the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates ‘neutral El Nino conditions’ which should mean that there will be good rains for India in June.
Other agencies such as the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) think that there is a chance of El Nino conditions emerging later in the season causing some disruption to rainfall patterns in July, August and September.
According to the Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulations (C-MMACS) in Bangalore, there will be ‘above normal’ rainfall in June with the likelihood of flooding in eastern and northeastern India. However, it is also keen to point out that this is just a forecast and is subject to error!
Long-range forecasting is always a tricky business so it is perhaps with this in mind that the main player - the Indian Meteorological Department - will not issue its own monsoon forecast until more data becomes available.
No doubt they are particularly mindful of the 2004 season when they predicted 100% of normal rainfall but ended up with just 87% by the end of the season. It was an unexpected upsurge in El Nino conditions that led to the deficiency so it seems like we could be in for another year when anything might happen.
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