India's weather office, India Meteorological Department, has forecast a near normal monsoon rain this year, with a four percent probability of deficient rains. This is good news for the Indian economy after a strong 2003.

A weather office statement said the exact date when the June-September monsoon would hit the coast will be known in the second week of May. The monsoon forecast will be updated at the end of June. Typically, the onset date is taken to be the 1st June each year, but it is subject to seasonal variation.

"The India Meteorological Department's long range forecast for the 2004 south-west monsoon season is likely to be 100 percent of the long period average with an error of five percent," IMD Director General S.K. Srivastav told a news conference.
He also said that there was "zero" probability of a drought in parts of the southern states of Karnataka and Kerala, where the rains have not been so good over the past two years.

"The chances of a drought are minimal," S.K. Subramanian, deputy director general of the IMD, told Reuters.
A good monsoon year can have hugely beneficial effects on what is the third largest economy within Asia. High yields from crop cultivation do also depend on the timing and distribution of the rainfall, but in general a normal monsoon season will lead to a plentiful harvest.

In 2002, the monsoon failed to bring in the required rainfall, resulting not only in a severe drought country-wide, but reduced the overall economic growth from 5.6% to just 4%. However, 2003 made up for it, bringing the best rainfall in over a decade, lifting the economy once again to an impressive 8.1%.

This year, following on from last year's healthy harvest, the grain production is expected to reach over 212 million tonnes, compared to 174 million tonnes in 2003. Oilseed production is also expected to rise by around 40%.

Weather News from the last five days:
16/04/2004
15/04/2004
14/04/2004
13/04/2004
12/04/2004

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