You may be aware of the weather pattern known as El Niño. It is a phenomenon which alters ocean currents with subsequent effects on rainfall and drought patterns. This in turn plays havoc with agriculture and, therefore, local economies.

For example, the last severe El Niño event occurred between 1997 and 1999, causing massive forest fires in southeast Asia and more than $20 billion of damage worldwide. In 1998, the northern hemisphere had its warmest year since 1950, record high temperatures of 105ºF (41ºC) were seen in Vietnam, and it was the warmest spring on record in Canada.

Also, the monsoon rains in India had the earliest onset for 97 years. The seasonal rains, which typically begin on June 1st every year, are one of the yearly weather patterns most obviously upset by the events of an El Niño year. The timing of the onset can be delayed or brought on early, and also the amount of rainfall during the monsoon can be greatly affected by the phenomenon.

Being able to predict an El Niño year can benefit farmers in particular to help prepare for the potentially devastating effects, and steps can be taken to help mitigate the losses.

Up until now, El Niño events were only able to be forecast approximately 9 months ahead of onset. However, a recent study, published in the journal Nature, has concluded that it can in fact be predicted up to two years away.

This could dramatically influence agricultural practices, allowing them to make long term plans for a potential change in weather pattern far in advance. Storage of extra crops during good years could also be allowed for, with plenty of notice, to aid distribution during bad years.

But, even though the ability to forecast El Niño appears to have increased significantly, it may not help smaller economies whose stability depends on a single crop. You cannot stop the event from occurring, or lessen its effects. But, it may help to prepare areas largely affected by the phenomenon by aiding forward planning of farming, and also perhaps water storage to see through times of extended drought.

Weather News from the last five days:
14/04/2004
13/04/2004
12/04/2004
11/04/2004
10/04/2004

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