As 2003 draws to a close, storm forecasters are looking back at the years busy hurricane season and making predictions for what lies in store for the next 12 months.
2003 has been one of the busiest years on record - a total of 16 storms, of which 7 made hurricane strength and 3 became major hurricanes (Fabian, Isabel and Kate). The Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane season officially ended on the 30th of November. However, since then a further two tropical storms have developed - this is the first time this has been known since 1887! (The season also got off to an early start, when tropical storm Ana formed in April more than a month in advance of the official start date of the 1st of June.)
'Odette' developed in the Caribbean sea early last week and tracked towards the Dominican Republic bringing lashings of rain and triggering flash flooding and landslides. This system has now dissipated.
'Peter' formed in the eastern Atlantic ocean Tuesday and strengthened rapidly. Although a threat only to shipping interests the storm still managed to pack winds of up to 70mph for a time but is now weakening. This is the sixteenth, and hopefully final, storm of the season (the annual average is 9.6).
So what lies in store for the coming year? The Department of Atmospheric Science in Colorado State Univerisity, which specialises in the longterm forecasting of Atlantic basin storms, is already pointing to 2004 being another very active year with the overall activity being 25% above average. 7 hurricanes are forecast (average 5.9) and 13 named storms (average 9.6). There is also increased probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the coming year.
If these forecasts hold true we can certainly expect some dramatic weather scenes for 2004.
Related Links :
Hurricanes, Typhoons & Tropical Cyclones Worldwide
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2004 Hurricane Forecast
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