La Niña forecast gives hope to drought stricken Australian farmers by Philip Avery
Recent observations taken by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) have indicated that the Pacific basin is on course for a La Niña event this year.
La Niña is defined as an unusual cooling of the central and eastern equatorial pacific which occurs, on average, every 3 to 5 years and can last up to two years. It is opposite to an El Niño event which is the unusual warming of the same area.
These events are important to understand because they have dramatic impacts on weather patterns around the world. For example, a La Niña event usually brings hot, dry conditions to the south-west of the USA. However, for Australia, a La Niña event means an increased probability of wetter conditions, above average rainfall, and flooding.
Australia's strongest recent examples were in 1973-74, which gave Brisbane its worst flooding this century, and in 1988-89 when vast areas of inland Australia had record rainfall amounts.
According to WMO’s latest observations, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have ranged between 0.5°C and 1°C below average for the past two months. These readings are consistent with the early stages of a basin-wide La Niña event.
This of course is welcome news for Australian farmers who have been battling the worst drought in a century.
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