A slow start, but forecast is average by Jay Wynne
From June to October each year India experiences the moist, rain-bearing monsoon from the southwest. This seasonal shift in wind direction brings rainfall to the whole Indian subcontinent, and is such a part of life that even the country’s economy is affected by the monsoon forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
This year the forecast is a good one. On 20th April 2005 the IMD issued their long-range monsoon forecast, which predicted that the season’s rainfall for the whole country would be around 98% of the long-term average. On the 18th May the IMD issued their forecast for the arrival of the southwest monsoon into the state of Kerala, in the south. They predicted the monsoon would reach the state around the 7th of June, just a bit behind the average date of the 1st.
As forecast, the progress so far of the southwest monsoon has been slower than average. As of the 7th June it was across Kerala and the southern half of Tamil Nadu; by now its northern limit should be roughly aligned with the northern borders of the states of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. However IMD forecasters won’t be unduly worried as there is no connection between a delay in the onset of the monsoon and the resulting rainfall across the country.
Residents in the states further north will be willing the monsoon to arrive as soon as possible. Ahead of the monsoon’s arrival temperatures across India can get very high, and it’s normal for the mercury to reach up to the high 30s Celsius (over 100°F). However things have been even hotter than that for parts of India recently. For example, in the state of Orissa yesterday the temperature in the city of Bhubaneshwar reached 41.7°C (107.1°F), six degrees above average. Severe heatwave conditions are prevailing over parts of Vidarbha and it’s also hotter than normal across parts of Marathawada, Madhya Pradesh, northwest Rajasthan and Telangana.
The monsoon brings relief and relatively cooler temperatures, although average highs are still around the low 30s Celsius (around 90°F). Thiruvananthapuram, in Kerala and well into the monsoon season, saw a high of 31.9°C (89.4°F) yesterday, just a couple of degrees above the average.
The India Meteorological Department issues an update to the long-range rainfall forecast at the end of June, by which time the monsoon should have set in across almost all of India except for the northwestern part of Rajasthan.
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