Seasonal hurricane forecast reduced – again. by Kaye Forster
William Gray’s forecasting team at the Colorado State University has again lowered their 2006 hurricane season forecast for the second time in a month. The number of hurricanes and tropical storms now expected this season is just 13, which is still above average.
The first hurricane season forecast was released during the spring, when 17 named storms were forecast, 10 of which were expected to reach hurricane status. However, after such a quiet start to the season the forecasters were soon forced to reduce their prediction.
On 8th August, the forecasting team reduced the forecast slightly to 15 named storms, with 9 expected to become hurricanes. However, with just 5 named storms having formed so far this season, compared to 9 this time last season, the forecast has been lowered once again. Now, just 13 named storms are expected with 7 becoming hurricanes.
On average, the north Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes. Last year, the Atlantic hurricane season produced a record 28 storms, including 15 hurricanes. Seven of these hurricanes were considered "major."
The factors which collectively favour the development of tropical storms in greater numbers and to greater intensity include; warmer ocean water (above 26.5C), lower wind shear, and weaker easterly trade winds. Warm water is the energy source for storms while favourable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm aloft. All of which were in place during the 2005 hurricane season.
This season however, seas surface temperatures are known to cooler than last year and there was a surprising amount of dry air, which has so far, suppressed development.
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