Active hurricane season predicted for 2005 by Susan Powell
An above average level of activity is predicted for this year’s hurricane season - but before it even officially starts on 1st June 2005 the legacy of the 2004 season still casts shadows for some...
One of the USA's most noted long-range hurricane forecasters predicts an active season for the Atlantic-Caribbean this year.
William Gray, Colorado State University professor, believes 13 tropical storms will form this year. Of these, seven are predicted to become hurricanes, of which three will become major storms with winds over 110mph.
The average season produces 10 tropical storms, six hurricanes and two major storms with winds of more than 110 mph. 2004 in comparison was somewhat exceptional - totalling 15 tropical storms, nine hurricanes and six major storms!
'All the information we have collected and analysed through March indicates that the 2005 Atlantic season will be an active one,' Gray said.
The fading possibility of an El Nin~o event was the reason for the forecast. In an El Nin~o year the jet stream across the Atlantic is shifted such that fewer disturbances in the atmosphere are steered over warm tropical waters - reducing the potential for storms to spin up here. (See links at bottom of page for more details on El Nin~o and tropical storms.)
On a more positive note Gray also added that coastal residents should not expect a disastrous season like the last one when four hurricanes tore through Florida.
'The 2004 hurricane season was an unusual year and residents along the East Coast should not expect the high number of land falling major hurricanes or the unprecedented level of destruction to be the norm for this or future years.'
Comforting as this prediction may be for the residents of Florida, many are still feeling the after effects of last years high strike rate - particularly citrus growers.
At this time of year, Florida’s signature scent - citrus trees in full bloom, is normally heavy in the air. This spring though it is harder to find.
The hurricanes have stressed the fruit trees to the extent that some are blooming on one side and not the other and some have yet to bloom!
However, in many instances blooming is heavier than normal - also not a good sign at this normally results in a light crop as the trees can't support that much fruiting.
Overall, it is thought that two thirds of this season’s grapefruit crop and about 30% of its orange crop will have been destroyed by the effects of hurricanes Frances and Jeanne.
Despite the difficulties many growers are still looking to the positive with hopes that things will return to normal before long. The trees are actually proving to be a lot hardier than many expected in face of the storm's ravages. Hopefully the forth coming storm season will give them the recovery time they need.
|
|
