Down wind from a volcano? by Jo Farrow
Weather forecasts can help warn of dangerous conditions due to snow, heavy rain and strong winds but there are other uses for the forecasts in relation to the wind direction.
National Met. services around the world have forecast models for atmospheric pollution dispersal. The Met. Office has models for chemical and nuclear emissions and also for volcanic ash. These allow forecast tracks to predict where the pollutant will end up in the coming days or even weeks. Although the UK itself doesn’t have any active volcanoes, ash from other areas, especially Iceland, can affect our airspace. Through history, massive explosions have allowed ash to push up into the upper atmosphere and circulate right around the world. And of course, following Chernobyl, the monitoring of the progress of a nuclear cloud is of utmost importance.
Volcanic activity is currently being monitored in the far northeast of mainland Russia. The Kamchatka peninsula is northeast of Vladivostock and northern Japan. The peninsula’s highest and most active volcano is called Kliuchevskoi and is becoming more lively. The concern Code for this volcano was raised to ‘Red’ (the highest level) due to the increased volcanic and seismic activity. It has since returned to ‘Orange’. Gas and steam and ash have been pluming upwards and the town of Kuchi has seen ashfall already. Pilots have observed an ash plume rising up to 7km high.
The importance of the plume forecasts is due to the significant safety hazard for jet aircraft. Last year the Grimsvotn eruption in Iceland resulted in warnings for aircraft in the North Sea, thanks to northwesterly winds.
Volcanic ash can cause engine shutdown and considerable damage to the frame of an aircraft due to its abrasive nature. Observers in the area provide information for the forecast model and satellite pictures are invaluable, especially for remote regions. The flight path between Hong Kong and Vancouver is not too far from the Kamchatka peninsula, so I would imagine aviation forecasts will be including volcanic ash alerts this week.
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