Winter Prediction 2006 - 07

Believe it or not, it's time to prop up the Advent calendar, start munching your way through the 24 festive chocolate figures and of course time to pose the big question…

No! Not what has Santa left behind door number 25 for you but what will the weather be like outside your front door on the big day?

However, before you consign the de-icer to the back seat and the bobble hat to the back of the cupboard, it is worth taking a look at what this prediction actually means in more detail:

Both of these methods are statistical techniques. They point to long-term trends and not the day to day details and variations. This year their overall feedback for Winter 2006 temperatures predicts higher than average values.

There's the "average" word again! It is important to remember that averages are made up of both highs and lows. Hence it is perfectly possible to have a warmer than average winter containing mild spells but also some very cold snaps with snowfall. The latest outcome of these predictions points to a mild start to the winter, with a chill setting in at the beginning of 2007.

The Monthly Outlook will give an indication of the weather trends, so keep checking the forecast to find out the latest as the big day approaches.

So far it looks as if there will be a very mild start to December with colder conditions for the two weeks before Christmas. So, perhaps the chances of seeing a few festive flakes are increasing.

One major difference from last year however, is how the presence of those flakes will be judged. Speculation on a 'White Christmas' is big business for the bookies and the tiniest drop of snow can make all the difference!

Only one flake needs to be detected at the specified site and you could very well be in the money! Until this year, Met Office forecasters manned eight sites around the UK and judged it a white Christmas if snow fell at these particular sites. This year, for the first time, it will be judged from the Met Office's central operations centre using ground sensors, webcams, radar and expert judgment. The latest odds from William Hill on a White Christmas range from 3/1 in Aberdeen to 8/1 in London.

However, if you're looking for a bigger return on your money - gambling on the likelihood of a warm Christmas, might be for you. William Hill are currently offering odds of 20/1 (at the time of writing) that the record top temperature is beaten on Christmas Day (Presently- 15.6C 1920 Kilerton Devon).

Or you could go all out at 100/1 on the Thames freezing over between Westminster Bridge and Tower Bridge or Big Ben failing to chime due to being frozen solid!

Personally I'm an old, romantic, Bing Crosby fan andmy festive flutter will still be on the flakes - if only to ensure that Mrs William Hill wakes up to a huge stocking filled with presents this year.