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Friday 24 October Published at 16:09
Issued by the Met Office
YELLOW warning of rain
A slow moving frontal is expected to bring periods of heavy rainfall to northwestern parts of Scotland. Rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm are likely, with as much as 150 mm in places.
Gales or severe gales are also likely with gusts of 70 mph possible, especially in exposure. Some disruption can be expected due to surface water flooding, with large waves affecting some coastal areas, bringing the risk of over topping of flood defences.
Valid from 0010 Sunday to 2350 Monday
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 20 October Published at 10:00
Gonzalo heads for the UK
Ex-Hurricane Gonzalo has been the strongest Atlantic Hurricane since 2010 when it peaked at a Category 4 storm. Since his formation he has battered Antigua, Bermuda and Newfoundland before making extra-tropical transition and beginning his journey across the Atlantic. Gonzalo's remnants will lose a lot of their energy as they cross the relatively cool waters of the Atlantic, and, as they reach the shores of the UK, extreme conditions seem unlikely. Rather, there will be brief spells of wet and windy weather during the start of the week - all fairly typical for this time of year.
Monday 20 October—Sunday 26 October
Unsettled throughout and turning increasingly cool
A strong westerly flow from the Atlantic is expected this week with high pressure to the south of the UK and low pressure to the north. This set up will bring bouts of wet and windy weather to the UK equally mixed with some brighter, more showery conditions.
Monday starts with a quiet, cloudy day and occasional light showers. However, with the remnants of Hurricane Gonzalo fast approaching, wet and very windy weather is set to push in overnight. The heavy rain associated with this system will clear overnight although the strong winds will persist into Tuesday. Tuesday itself looks windy and showery with some brighter interludes, feeling cooler too which could mean the odd snow flurry over the higher ground of northwest Scotland.
The unsettled weather continues for the end of the week too, with winds easing slightly, spells of rain for all and feeling cooler with temperatures returning to the seasonal norm.
Monday 27 October—Sunday 2 November
Textbook autumn continuing
From next weekend onwards the signs point to high pressure starting to build from the southwest, extending north over England and Wales. This will create a north-south split in the UK weather with the driest and brightest conditions towards the south and breezier conditions with outbreaks of rain further north. In this set up, temperatures are likely to sit where they should be for this time of year.
Monday 3 November—Sunday 16 November
North - south split continues
Conditions look set to continue the trend of a north-south split for the first half of November with wet and windy weather most likely for the north of the country and drier and brighter weather further south. This does not mean that rain will be confined solely to northern and western areas; from time to time it could affect the whole country. Southern areas are more likely to have drier interludes with some sunny spells - however, this may lead to the risk of mist or fog forming overnight. During this period daytime temperatures are likely to be around the seasonal norm.
As we approach the end of autumn will we soon start to feel the cold grasp of winter?
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 27 October
Friday 24 October Published at 15:44
Rain clearing the southeast. Windy and showery in the northwest.
This Evening and Tonight
Rain will slowly clear southeastern England this evening. A dry night will follow, bar the odd coastal shower, with clear spells allowing the odd fog patch to form. Windy in the northwest with coastal gales and frequent showers.
Frequent showers and strong winds will continue across western Scotland with severe gales affecting coastal areas. Less windy and showery elsewhere, with the best of the sunshine across eastern areas.
Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday
Very wet and windy in the northwest Sunday and Monday. Rain pushes southeastwards on Tuesday with cooler, brighter conditions following. Drier and mild further south, but with isolated drizzly outbreaks.