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Thursday 27 November Published at 00:01
Issued by the Met Office
Thursday 27th November 2014
YELLOW WARNING of FOG for parts of NORTHERN IRELAND
Fog, locally dense, is becoming more widespread on Wednesday evening across western and central parts of Northern Ireland. Visibilities of less than 100 metres in places may result in some tricky driving conditions. Some freezing fog patches may also develop overnight. The fog will slowly clear again on Thursday morning.
The public should be aware of the risk of some disruption to transport overnight and tomorrow morning.
Valid from 1800 on Wednesday to 1000 on Thursday
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 24 November Published at 10:00
A cold chapter starts a mild story
The first two weeks of November continued the unsettled theme of much of October, and not much has changed in the past week with colder interludes relatively limited. Many of you will have noticed that we started this new week on a rather crisp, frosty note, and in fact Monday morning was one of the coldest of autumn so far. This is not a sign of things to come however; while we are expecting a few relatively chillier days initially, by the end of this week it's likely to be on the mild side once again.
Thanks to a rather wandering jet stream the weather that we have had recently hasn't all arrived with gusto from the Atlantic, and on Tuesday this week we'll be watching a weather system bringing rain into the UK from the south. As we head into December though, there are signs that the jet stream should start to straighten itself out again, allowing Atlantic low pressure systems to make more determined progress past the UK. A straighter jet stream will depend on how developments in the upper atmosphere pan out this week, but one thing looks likely: there are no strong signals for snow other than over the mountain tops.
Monday 24 November—Sunday 30 November
Scrapers at the ready
For much of the UK on Monday it will be dry and sunny after a frosty start, although morning fog may take time to clear from some spots. A relatively weak weather front will bring cloud and some rain into Northern Ireland and then western Scotland through the day. This front will come to rest on Monday night over southern Scotland and northern England. Elsewhere, it will turn frosty again under clear spells with fog patches reforming.
Through Tuesday and Wednesday it will be cloudier and feeling chilly, with many parts away from the northwest of the UK seeing some rain thanks to a weather system moving northwards across the country. Northwest UK will escape much of the rain through midweek.
Much of the country on Thursday will be drier and brighter again, although a new weather front will be starting to push into the far west later, bringing increasing cloud and strengthening winds. This front will bring outbreaks of rain and strong winds across the west on Friday, but will also draw mild air northwards ahead of it. This will lead to a less chilly end to the week, especially in the east where the dry and bright weather should last through Friday. However the southerly winds will reach gale or severe gale force at times in the west and northwest.
Into the weekend, the rain and strong winds will push slowly eastwards, although with southeastern areas not expected to see much rainfall. Nights will be milder too, with the frost risk much lower than at the start of this week.
Monday 1 December—Sunday 7 December
A more determined jet stream
As discussed here earlier this month, at this time of year changeable weather is not unusual. As the northern hemisphere's temperature patterns adjust more noticeably, it causes the jet stream to become more active and thus exert more of an influence over the British Isles. Each time an Atlantic low crosses the UK, colder air from northern latitudes is given the opportunity to dig down behind the departing low. So even if the average signal from computer models is for westerly winds, that can easily mask short interludes with winds from a more northerly direction.
As the jet stream starts to try and straighten out and take a more directly eastward route across the Atlantic, it will help to drive spells of occasionally heavy rain across the country, with gales in exposure at times. The milder conditions associated with the wind and rain will be interspersed with sunnier, showery and colder weather, as the wind switches around before the next weather system arrives. Some wintry showers over the mountains in the north are possible during the colder interludes, as well as frost and fog, but averaged out it looks like the first week of December will see temperatures close to normal for the time of year.
Monday 8 December—Sunday 21 December
Snow joke, there'll be little
At the time of writing there is no strong signal for any particular weather pattern to dominate during this period. Currently, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to remain around, or a little above, average for the time of year, although there will still likely be a chance of some frost and fog in places by night. This presently looks more likely across northern areas, where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.
The most important monthly outlook of the year? A first glimpse at whether it'll be a white Christmas...
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 1 December
Thursday 27 November Published at 03:35
Another largely cloudy and murky day.
Many places dull, misty and damp with widespread hill fog. Mainly dry and somewhat brighter for some western and particularly northwestern parts after the slow clearance of any fog. Becoming breezy in the southwest later.
Dry for many overnight, though still some patchy drizzle, with some rain in the northeast. Cloudy and misty for many, but some clearer spells in the west. Becoming increasingly breezy.
A breezy day. Still mainly cloudy, though a good deal of dry weather, but further rain and drizzle in the northeast. Some brighter spells in the west at times.
Outlook for Saturday to Monday
Quiet through the weekend with a good deal of cloud, but largely dry conditions, and occasional brighter spells. Rain spreading from the northwest on Monday and turning colder.