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Tuesday 27 January Published at 12:30
Issued by the Met Office
YELLOW EARLY WARNING OF SNOW for northern England, The Midlands, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Updated 12:30 on Tuesday 27th January.
Valid from: 0800 on Wednesday 28th January.
To: 2355 on Thursday 29th January.
Showers are expected to turn to snow across parts of northern Scotland during Wednesday morning, the risk then transferring to other areas through the rest of the day, continuing overnight and for much of Thursday.
Across Northern England 3-8 cm could accumulate by Thursday morning, especially over high ground. Over Scotland and Northern Ireland 5-10 cm may fall even at some lower levels, with more than 15 cm possible over higher ground. Strong, gusty winds will lead to drifting and temporary blizzards over high ground, while icy surfaces and lightning pose additional risks in some areas.
This is an update to extend the warning a little further south across the Pennines. Note also that there is some signal that more frequent snow showers may affect parts of southern and central Scotland through the evening peak travel period on Wednesday, and this may lead to eventual issue of an Amber warning.
The public should be aware of the potential for disruption to travel.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 26 January Published at 10:00
A cold spell on the horizon.
Last week brought some of the coldest weather the UK has seen for some time. With the winter of 2013/2014 being the 5th mildest winter on record (and records began back in 1910!), it's not that surprising that many areas of the UK saw their coldest nights since way back in March 2013. Temperatures dipped to -14 Celsius on Monday across the snow fields of the Highlands of Scotland, and -9 across western Berkshire on Friday morning.
The weekend saw the return of some milder conditions from the west though, and as we head into the start of this week, it looks like temperatures will stay around the average for late January, with some spells of wet and windy weather at times. By late week though, strong northwesterly winds look set to usher in some rather cold weather that will likely last for several days.
Beyond that, a spell of quietr but still rather cold weather is currently thought most likley. A return to broadly westerly winds driving a succession of Atlantic weather systems across the UK is then anticpated as we head into mid-february.
Read on to find out the details...
Monday 26 January—Sunday 1 February
Breezy and damp giving way to cold and very windy!
The last week of January will get off to a breezy and damp start as weather fronts and some relatively mild Atlantic air clear away into the continent. This process should leave the remainder of Monday as a fairly dry and bright day for most, save for a few wintry showers that will affect the far northwest of Scotland at times. Conditions will be a little chilly overnight into Tuesday with perhaps a slight frost for rural areas, but during Tuesday another fairly weak Atlantic weather system will be ushered in by brisk westerly winds to bring cloudy, milder conditions with some further patchy rain, chiefly for western hills of the UK.
Cloudy, wet and windy weather is likely to be the order of the day on Wednesday with further Atlantic weather fronts moving in from the west.
By late Wednesday though, the UK weather looks as if it will take on a much colder and windier theme, with strong to gale force northwesterly winds bringing cold air across the UK, and the risk of some periods of snowfall, particularly for Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern areas of England, but possible just about anywhere for a time. There will also likely be an increase in overnight frost risk and icy patches as we move through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. February looks like it will get off to a very cold and windy start!
Monday 2 February—Sunday 8 February
Cold through the first week of February.
The cold and strong northwesterly winds that developed towards the end of January look likely to continue through the first week of February, with many areas seeing strong to gale force winds at times, particularly in the north, with even the risk of severe gales around some exposed coastlines of the north and west. Low pressure systems may also be picked up in the northwesterly wind and be driven across the UK, bringing the threat of some spells of snowfall.
By the end of the period, most of the forecasting computer models suggest that an area of high pressure, initially anchored over the mid-Atlantic, will drift eastwards to be positioned over the UK. This process will likely result in a continuation of the cold theme and the associated risk of frosty nights, but the weather is likely to become significantly drier and less windy. Indeed, freezing overnight fog patches are also a likely issue as we head towards the end of first week of the month.
Monday 9 February—Sunday 22 February
Returning to a changeable theme.
At the time of writing, the majority of the medium to long range forecasting computer models are suggesting that this period will begin on a changeable note, with a swift return to Atlantic lows crossing the country from the west (a very familiar theme so far this winter of course!). At this range, it is difficult to assign any specific details to the forecast regarding such features. However, it looks most likely that all areas of the UK will experience some wet and windy intervals, with further cold incursions of air from the north or northwest from time to time.
We await further forecast information with interest!
Will winter bow out on a cold or mild note? Be sure to get the up-to-date medium range forecast details next week.
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 2 February
Tuesday 27 January Published at 15:37
Rain clearing southeast. Cold tomorrow with blustery wintry showers. Windy.
This Evening and Tonight
Outbreaks of rain across northwest Scotland will slowly spread southeastwards affecting most parts of the UK. Behind the rain, it will turn colder from the northwest with wintry showers following. Becoming windy, with gales in the north.
Rain will clear the south through the morning. Elsewhere, bright and cold with scattered wintry showers. Snow showers turning heavy across the north later. Windy, especially in north and west.
Outlook for Thursday to Saturday
Cold throughout with frequent sleet or snow showers, but with more sunny spells inland by Saturday. Strong to gale force winds will accentuate the cold feel.