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Warnings
Wednesday 8 February Published at 18:57
UK Warnings
Weather Warning
Wednesday 8th February
YELLOW WARNING - ICE
Rain will spread southeastwards across Scotland this evening, reaching northern England early Thursday. As it falls onto very cold surfaces, it will freeze instantly, leading to hazardouse icy conditions.
The warning may be upgraded to Amber in due course.
Valid until 1800 Thursday
Wednesday 8th February
YELLOW EARLY WARNING - SNOW
An area of snow is expected to develop over east and northeast England later on Thursday, and then during Friday this will extend steadily southwestwards into central and some southwestern parts of England, as well as the east of Wales.
Accumulations of up to about 10cm are possible in the worst affected regions. As a result, there could be some disruption to travel.
Further updates will appear here
Flood Warning
Wednesday 8th February
There are no flood warnings in force.
Further updates will appear here.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency (for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0845 988 1188
Monthly Outlook
Monday 6 February Published at 10:00
Monthly Outlook
Summary
The block persists but for how long?
The start of February saw a battle between high pressure in the east, bringing cold Siberian air across the UK and westerlies bringing milder air feeding in from the Atlantic. The boundary between the two is where rain and snow can form - as many parts of the country experienced last weekend.
Once this type of "block" gets set up, it can become very persistent and this is what we are continuing to see as we head through the month. One of the biggest challenges in forecasting this type of weather set-up is predicting how long it will last and thus just how prolonged this spell of cold weather will be before we return to a more typical weather pattern.
Monday 6 February—Sunday 12 February
The high dominates
This week sees the high pressure dominating across the majority of the country with mild air pushing into the west at times, mainly at the beginning and end of the week.
The east will see a cold but mostly dry week. By night frost and ice will form as well as areas of freezing fog which will often be very slow to clear. Where this fog persists the temperatures will become very suppressed - often struggling to creep above freezing. There will be some bright spells around but with the odd snow flurry also a risk from time to time.
In the west there will be more variation in the weather. At times the mild air will feed in from the west to give windier, milder weather with outbreaks of rain, perhaps turning wintry at times. However, these fronts will tend to weaken as they push into the high pressure, so brighter, drier days with frost and fog by night are also on the cards.
Monday 13 February—Sunday 19 February
The high shifts - or does it?
By the middle of February high pressure still looks likely to be dominating our weather pattern. The questions is exactly where it will become most prominent. It looks most likely to remain to the east, however there is a smaller possibility it will shifts southwestwards.
The first scenario would bring the continued cold, frosty and foggy conditions to the east with weather fronts continuing to push into the west.
The second scenario would allow low pressure systems to feed around the high pressure across the northern half of the UK, with wetter and windier conditions here. In this case the colder, drier weather would persist in the south.
Monday 20 February—Sunday 4 March
Turning milder?
In this period we may start to see the breakdown of the high pressure as weather fronts make increasing progress across the country, bringing milder air with them, although it could be a very slow process.
It will start cold where the high pressure remains in charge with frost and fog still on the menu. Gradually milder, more unsettled weather may make inroads from the northwest, bringing a more typical weather pattern to the rest of the country. If this transition takes place there may be a period of snow and despite this change to milder weather, given the time of year overnight frosts are still likely from time to time.
Alternatively if the high pressure remains in place the cold weather will continue for much of the UK.
Next week
Just how quickly will the block break down and where will the mild air end up?
Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.Summary
Wednesday 8 February Published at 15:48
Summary
Rain in the north leading to ice. Cloudy further south.
This Evening and Tonight
Rain across northwestern parts spreading to the remainder of Scotland and later northern England and Wales. This falling onto sub-zero surfaces leading to significant risk of ice. Remaining largely cloudy and cold further south, although some clear spells developing.
Thursday
Rain spreading across Wales and northern England, with an ongoing ice risk. This later spreading south, where it is likely to turn to snow for some, with significant accumulations possible.
Friday to Sunday
Outbreaks of rain in the north and west with snow across central and some eastern areas on Friday. This easing to light rain for the weekend with some patchy fog.
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