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Monday 6 July Published at 15:39
Issued by the Met Office
YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN for parts of northeastern Scotland
Updated 6 July at 11:07
Valid from 14:00 on 7 July to 20:00 on 7 July
Scattered showers are expected to develop across Scotland during Tuesday afternoon with some of these becoming heavy and thundery.
The showers are likely to be slow-moving across northeast Scotland and as a result there is the potential for large rainfall accumulations here in a short period of time.
Whilst many places could miss the showers the public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding and difficult driving conditions in any surface water.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 6 July Published at 10:00
Summery weather to match the summer holidays?
The weather has already declared the start of summer in many but not all parts of the British Isles. A new July record of 36.7°C was set on 1st July at Heathrow Airport and made many a headline. At the same time, the Northern Isles were struggling to make 15°C. As the first week of July unfolded, so the archetypal tale of the British summer was repeated: a run of fine days and then thunderstorms - and what thunderstorms! News bulletins in the latter part of the week were awash with spectacular imagery, often captured by those unable to sleep through nature's own son et lumiere.
Sceptics have already ventured that that was the summer. The coming week may, at times, offer more evidence to support the argument. The wind will turn, allbeit briefly, into the northwest and temperatures in single figures will greet the early risers on Thursday. And yet, just at the first hearing of 'the nights are drawing in', so temperatures across southern Britain will head back towards 30°C. Another page or two in our Summer's Tale.
Monday 6 July—Sunday 12 July
A week of weather to keep us all on our toes
Little is settled about the weather pattern as the week begins. Low pressure will urge frontal systems into the north and west of the British Isles through Monday, bringing cloudy, wet and windy conditions. Sunshine will become increasingly hazy across East Anglia and SE England even though it should stay dry in both areas. Tuesday sees the front cross into the SE of the British Isles, bringing some heavy bursts of rain, with showers following to all other areas.
Low pressure continues to dominate through midweek. As it transfers to Scandinavia, so a very noticeable, N-NW'ly wind will bring showers to many northern and eastern areas and it will feel decidedly cooler. That chilly theme continues into Thursday morning, when many spots in the northern half of the British Isles will start the day with temperatures in single figures. This is something of a hiatus in the story of relative warmth as a new, Atlantic low will eventually approach western Ireland, easing the wind back into a SW'ly and bringing more cloud and rain to Northern Ireland and western Scotland late on Thursday and to Northern Ireland, all of Scotland and NW England through Friday. It's at this point that temperatures in much of England and Wales will begin to rise towards at least the mid-20C mark. Thoughts about the weekend are, at this stage, a little mixed, given that a return to more unsettled fair is expected. That could start as early as Saturday but could be delayed until late Sunday.
Monday 13 July—Sunday 19 July
Cloudy, cool and wet at times for northern Britain
Whilst high pressure will try to dominate proceedings in southern Britain and offers the chance of something suitably seasonal, it should be a different story further north. Those in eastern Scotland could be most underwhelmed by a combination of cool, cloudy and wet weather for at least part of the week.
The south of England and Wales, especially SE England, could well see another spell of very warm, sunny weather with very little in the way of rain expected.
Confidence rates at medium to high for the continuation from week one of this north-south split.
Monday 20 July—Sunday 2 August
Prospects of more warm weather in southern Britain
Fair weather rarely means even-handed or balanced. Much of southern Britain should again enjoy the benefits of relatively high pressure. Whilst sunshine amounts should be around average for all but SW Scotland, temperatures across much of England and Wales should respond well to give above average or well above average figures. That should put many inland parts comfortably into the mid-20°C bracket with the coasts a little cooler as ever.
Low pressures and their associated fronts look more likely to dominate the north and northwest of the British Isles. Wetter spells are more likely here, with consequential reductions in sunshine. Temperatures could, at times, be well below the seasonal norms.
Will the weather play a hand in deciding the Ashes? Check out the prospects here.
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 13 July
Monday 6 July Published at 15:34
Rain spreading east tonight. Sunshine and some heavy showers tomorrow.
This Evening and Tonight
Patchy rain in the west moves slowly eastwards, with some heavy bursts over parts of the southeast by morning. Rain also moves northwards across Scotland. Mainly cloudy elsewhere with scattered showers spreading from the west.
Heavy showery rain will clear southeast England through the morning. Outbreaks of rain will persist across northern Scotland. Elsewhere, there will be sunny spells and scattered locally heavy showers.
Outlook for Wednesday to Friday
Unsettled on Wednesday and cooler, with sunshine and showers. Mostly fine on Thursday with rain in the northwest later. Mainly fine with rain in the northwest Friday and turning warmer.