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Wednesday 6 May Published at 20:06
Issued by the Met Office
Wednesday 6 May
There are no weather warnings in force anywhere in the United Kingdom.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 4 May Published at 10:00
What season is it?!
April, the middle month of spring, has brought the delights of every season of the year. We have had spring showers, winter frosts, autumn sunshine and summertime temperatures. It's been another incredible month of forecasting and, as always, the UK climate has kept keen meteorologists on their toes. The earth continues its steady plod towards longer days and stronger sunshine while the weather has kept a steady grip on every season, particularly last week.
The last week of April saw the return of frosty mornings, making the morning landscape sprinkle and Katesbridge in County Down recorded minus 8.0 C on the 27th of April. Scotland had spells of snow and whilst it felt cooler everywhere in the UK, there were above-average hours of sunshine pretty much right across the UK during April. Let's take a look and see what's in store for this week.
Monday 4 May—Monday 11 May
A cool westerly is on the cards
A cool westerly is on the cards for most of us.
It was wet and windy at some point for all of us this May bank holiday weekend. Today, however, will by far mark the best day of the extended weekend and there will be plenty of dry and fine weather during daylight hours. It's all change again this evening as a pulse of heavy rain and brisk winds spreads northwards from the Channel. This will clear most of southern England and Wales by Tuesday morning. Further north it will mean a wet and windy day during Tuesday; these unsettled conditions will then last through to Wednesday. Some brightness will develop here during Wednesday as the area of rain continues to fragment. Further south, there will be sunny spells during Tuesday and Wednesday with a cool westerly continuing to feed mainly western areas with scattered showers.
From Thursday through to the weekend, northern and western areas are expected to see showers but elsewhere it looks as if it may just settle down for the weekend with showers becoming less frequent. Overall the picture is average.
What does this mean? Broadly speaking, temperatures across northern parts of the UK are around 10-13 and southern areas are around 13-16. Slowly but surely we are moving away from a frost risk and snow risk.
Monday 11 May—Monday 18 May
How far out can we really forecast to?
Depending on the synoptic situation and the time of year, weather forecasting can be more accurate and at times less accurate. It's always worth remembering that our 5-day forecast is as good as a one day forecast was 40 years ago! Advances in computer models, atmospheric science, new satellite interpretations and probabilistic forecasting can make it challenging to interpret what the hundreds of computer results mean. The output of these models needs to be considered in a statistical way.
The models don't tell us there will be sunshine here on one day or rain somewhere else on another day. They show us anomalies from what is considered 'normal', amongst other things. The computer models have an historical record of weather at various times of year the year. The model uses this information to try and highlight changes or deviations in a weather pattern it may expect for this time of year. The more computer model simulations that fall into the same type of pattern, the more confidence we gain on how certain we are that these patterns may occur. As meteorologists we then translate the patterns into day-to-day weather.
So, as we start the middle of May, the computer models suggest that, on the whole, we will see good spells of drier weather, but not all the time. Unsettled spells will occur and these look most likely in the north and north-west while the further south and south-east we go, we are likely to hang on to settled conditions for longer.
Monday 18 May—Monday 1 June
Which weather pattern is most dominant?
Computer models at the moment are broadly clustering with two patterns emerging: Northern and, at times, western areas seeing rain in between some good dry spells, while further south and east there is a pattern of seeing some lengthy dry spells with daytime temperatures responding accordingly well as we start into summer.
By the time the monthly outlook is ready to be written again, we will have gained almost a half hour extra of daylight. This will aid saying goodbye to night time frosts - but what will it mean for daytime tempertures as we move into summer?
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 11 May
Wednesday 6 May Published at 15:35
Rain and showers generally easing.
This Evening and Tonight
Spells of rain and strong winds will continue across the far northeast, whilst showers in Northwest Scotland will turn wintry over hills. Elsewhere, winds will turn light and showers will become less widespread with many areas becoming dry.
Cool and windy in the far north with showers, wintry on hills. Largely dry elsewhere with gentle winds and pleasantly warm sunshine, although a few isolated showers are possible.
Outlook for Friday to Sunday
Turning wet and locally windy later on Friday. Sunny spells and scattered blustery showers on Saturday. Further wind and rain in the northwest on Sunday, but brighter and warmer elsewhere.