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Wednesday 9 July Published at 12:13
Issued by the Met Office
Wednesday 9th July 2014
YELLOW WARNING of RAIN
Outbreaks of rain across eastern England will become heavy at times during Thursday and overnight into Friday morning. Some local surface water flooding may occur, although not everywhere within this zone will see heavy rain.
The public should be aware of the risk of local disruption to transport and outdoor events during Thursday and overnight into Friday morning.
Valid from 0600 on Thursday until 0900 on Friday.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency (for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0845 988 1188
Monday 7 July Published at 10:00
In this month is St Swithin's Day...
Last month turned out to be the warmest June since 2006 for the UK as a whole. Some individual weather stations in Scotland and Northern Ireland had their warmest June on record, most notably Stornoway whose weather data records stretch back 140 years. The warm theme continued into the first few days of July, with Friday 4th turning out to be the UK's hottest day of the year so far. Writtle in Essex and Weybourne in Norfolk both reached 28.7 degrees Celsius.
Things turned cooler and more unsettled over the weekend however, with rain and showers cooling things off. This unsettled story continues through the first full week of July, but high pressure is not too far away and will try and make inroads - at least across more southern parts - at times later on this month.
Monday 7 July—Sunday 13 July
Sunshine and showers at first, rain later
This week starts out with a fairly typical sunshine and showers set-up across the UK. Some of the showers could be heavy and slow-moving on Monday and Tuesday, with a risk of hail and thunder in the heaviest. In between the showers there will be spells of sunshine, helping temperatures reach their typical values for the time of year. By night, some prone rural spots will see temperatures drop to a little on the cool side.
On Wednesday a brief ridge of high pressure builds from the west, however it will be short-lived. A developing area of low pressure over central Europe looks set to spread a band of rain across the country from the east. Variability in the various computer models reduces the certainty in the timing of the arrival of this rain, but at present it looks as though eastern areas will be turning cloudier and cooler through the latter part of Wednesday as the northerly wind increases ahead of the rain. The rain itself will arrive during Thursday and gradually spread westwards before slowly dying out through western parts of the UK on Friday. It will feel rather cool in that rain with the wind not helping either, especially in eastern coastal districts.
Behind the rain as it clears westward brighter - and warmer - conditions could spread in for the weekend, but at the same time showers are expected to return too.
Monday 14 July—Sunday 20 July
If it does rain, full forty days it will remain
Into the second half of July it looks as though there will be a transition towards a more climatologically typical pattern. During this week in particular, it looks as though pressure will tend to be higher across the south and east of the UK, and lower towards the north and west. This leads to the most unsettled conditions generally concentrating towards the northwestern corner of the UK, as any Atlantic low pressure systems pass close by. The best of the drier and brighter weather will be found further south and east. If this pattern persists, temperatures may become locally warm where the settled weather continues, especially so in the south and southeast as winds become more southerly.
Of course, the 15th of July is St Swithin's Day, so will we see this weather set-up continue through the rest of summer? It is only folklore of course, but the computer models aren't showing too many signs of a major shift in distribution of the high and low pressure centres around the UK. That's not to say that if you do see rain falling on 15th July that it will continue for the next 40 days and nights, our weather can be much more fickle than that!
Monday 21 July—Sunday 3 August
School holidays set fair?
It does seem, at least at the moment, that there is a good chance that an area of high pressure will often be positioned to the southwest of the UK during the latter part of July and into the start of August. This, known as the Azores High, may expand across the UK at times to bring spells of fine weather and warm weather, most probably across the south. Some changeable and more unsettled spells are also possible, more likely in the north.
Will St Swithin's prediction hold as August gets properly underway?
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 14 July
Wednesday 9 July Published at 15:36
Increasingly cloudy. Some heavy rain in the east.
This Evening and Tonight
Staying mostly dry this evening and overnight, with cloud gradually edging westwards into central parts. Windy in the far east with outbreaks of rain by arriving. Western areas remaining dry and clear but with rain across Northern Ireland later.
Cloud and occasionally heavy rain continuing across parts of the east, whilst many western areas stay fine. Patchy rain may affect Northern Ireland and western fringes through the afternoon.
Outlook for Friday to Sunday
Sunshine and showers for many, locally heavy and thundery, particularly in eastern parts. Rain across the west on Saturday spreading east to central areas on Sunday. Increasingly warm and humid.