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Warnings

Friday 5 February Published at 17:29

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING of ICE for northern and eastern Scotland

Issued at: 1116 on Fri 5th Feb 2016

Valid from:2100 on Fri 5 Feb 2016

Valid to: 0900 on Sat 6 Feb 2016

Icy patches are expected to form on untreated surfaces on Friday evening and overnight into Saturday morning. Snow showers are expected at times too, leading to some accumulations on higher ground.

Please be aware of these wintry hazards and the potential for some difficult driving conditions.

YELLOW WARNING of RAIN for south Wales, southwest England and southern England.

Issued at:1041 on Fri 5 Feb 2016

Valid from:0600 on Sat 6 Feb 2016

Valid to:2200 on Sat 6 Feb 2016

A spell of persistent rain, heavy at times, accompanied by windy conditions, is expected to affect parts of southern and southwestern England and parts of south Wales from the early hours of Saturday onwards into Saturday late afternoon or evening.

20-30 mm of rain is expected quite widely across the warning area with 50-70 mm on south-facing slopes. Higher ground in southern parts of Devon and Somerset are likely to see the highest totals with locally in excess of 80 mm possible over parts of Dartmoor. In addition, southerly gales or severe gales are expected with gusts of 40-50 mph inland and locally 65 mph over higher ground and south-facing coasts.

As this rain will be falling on near-saturated ground, please be aware of the risk of localised flooding and perhaps some disruption to travel.

YELLOW EARLY WARNING of WIND for southwest England and southern England.

Issued at 1128 on Fri 5 Feb 2016

Valid from:0600 on Mon 8 Feb 2016

Valid to:1500 on Mon 8 Feb 2016

An area of very strong winds is likely across parts of southwest and south England, in particular the coasts of Cornwall, on Monday morning before winds gradually ease during the afternoon.

Gusts of 60-70 mph are possible in exposed coastal districts. Please be aware of the potential for disruption to travel.

Flood Warning

Issued by the Environment Agency or by SEPA in Scotland and Natural Resources Wales in Wales

FLOOD WARNINGS

Updated at 17:30 on 5th Feb 2016

There are flood warnings in force in the following regions:

SOUTHWEST (1)

SCOTLAND (6)

Further updates will appear here.

About the Met Office Weather Warnings

BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.

Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.

Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.

There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.

A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.

When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings

About Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline - 0345 988 1188

Monthly Outlook

Monday 1 February Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary
Stormy start. Will the disturbed weather end?

Following the exceptionally mild and wet December, January has drawn to a close with temperatures averaging out just a little above normal. Although north-west Scotland has had a dry month, parts of eastern Scotland and north-east England have had more than twice their normal January rainfall.

February will start off with the eighth named storm of the winter, Henry, giving further severe gales, but as the month goes on the wet and windy weather which has characterised the winter so far is expected to become less frequent, with some lengthier drier and cooler spells anticipated.

Monday 1 February—Sunday 7 February
Storm Henry followed by cooler, showery weather

The week begins with weather warnings in force for potentially disruptive gales over Scotland later on Monday and into Tuesday, as storm Henry passes close to northern Scotland. The whole country will have a very windy couple of days, with gales in many areas, but central and northern Scotland, apart from Shetland, will suffer the strongest and most damaging gusts - up to 90 mph in places. Monday will start mild and cloudy in the south but it will turn cooler with showers during the day. Tuesday and Wednesday will be rather cold, showery days, with the winds gradually easing. Showers will be most frequent over Northern Ireland and Scotland, where the showers will fall as snow on hills, while England and Wales will have the best of the sunny intervals.

There will be a change back to milder, rather windy weather with rain at times on Thursday and at first on Friday, before there is a change back to cooler, brighter weather but with showers in the north and west.

For the weekend, many places are expected to keep showery, windy weather with some sunshine and daytime temperatures a little on the cold side. There's a moderate risk that a new area of low pressure will form over the Atlantic, bringing a return to heavier rain and gales - with southern England and Wales more likely to be in the firing line for this development.

Monday 8 February—Sunday 14 February
Often bright and breezy but cool

The second week of February will start off with a showery type of weather established across the British Isles, with quite strong west or northwesterly winds bringing showers and clear or sunny intervals. With this wind regime, Scotland, Northern Ireland and western parts of Wales and northern England will see most frequent showers - these falling as snow on higher hills. Around midweek the showers are expected to die out, leaving a chilly but drier day or two with night frosts. For the end of the week, further areas of cloud, rain and strong winds are expected to approach the UK from the Atlantic. The track of the low pressure systems bringing this change is uncertain: most likely they will bring milder weather for a time, but if their track is more southerly the weather will remain chilly with an increased chance of the rain turning to snow on higher ground at least.

Monday 15 February—Sunday 28 February
No strong signal for wintry weather

So far, in broad terms, this winter has behaved much as expected. Strong El Niños in the Pacific, such as the ongoing event, are often associated with the unsettled and predominantly mild conditions over the UK and northwest Europe which have persisted through December and January. By late winter, changes in the pressure pattern over the north Pacific can lead to changes in the jet stream further round the northern hemisphere.

The implication for late February weather is that mild, wet and windy spells of weather are expected to become more sporadic and short-lived, while the intervening periods of drier, brighter and cooler weather with some night frosts will last longer. There is, as yet, no signal for any major change in the weather patterns which would lead to more severe wintry weather.

Next week

As February progresses, there will be greater confidence in the shape of late winter weather patterns over the UK. Lowland areas of England and Wales have seen little snow again this winter - is there much chance of a late frosty spell with some snow?

Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

Next update at 10:00, Monday 8 February

Summary

Saturday 6 February Published at 01:51

Summary

Very unsettled with spells of wet and very windy weather.
Today

Wet and windy weather will spread to most areas from the southwest, giving a risk of flooding across south Wales and southwest England. Gales will affect southern and western parts. Northeast Scotland and parts of southeast England should escape dry.

Tonight

Rain will move away to the north and east to leave clear spells and blustery showers. Gales will affect exposed areas and showers will be locally wintry in the north.

Sunday

Most areas will have sunny spells on Sunday, although heavy and blustery showers will feed in from the west in locally gale force winds. More persistent rain will arrive later.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday

Monday will be very showery, with severe gales affecting southern areas and showers turning wintry in the north. During Tuesday and Wednesday the strong winds and showers will gradually ease.

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UK Forecast Last updated 00:17, Saturday 6 Feb