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Monday 29 September Published at 10:51
Issued by the Met Office
Monday 29 September
There are no weather warnings in force anywhere in the United Kingdom.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Alerts.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Alerts will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Alert of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Alert is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 29 September Published at 10:00
Change of month, change of weather!
This may only be conjecture, but it seems that that lately a change in the calendar month is often accompanied by a change in the type of weather. We saw it from July into August, where we went from warm and settled to cool and wet. We then switched back the other way into September, which has in fact been notably dry. Now, as we hurtle towards October, we are again looking at a switch to unsettled weather. The transition will be gradual; each new weather front that arrives from the Atlantic will have better success than its predecessor with nudging away the stubborn area of high pressure that has helped to keep September generally settled. By the first full week of October though, the models are currently signalling increased chances of rain and wind. Interestingly this signal has been suggested since October started falling within the scope of this Monthly Outlook, and now we can put a little more detail on at least the first few days of the month.
Monday 29 September—Sunday 5 October
A few fine days, then...
The week starts generally on a somewhat summery note, following a weekend where temperatures were rather above average for the end of September. But rather than continuing the settled theme following a few fine days, there will in fact be a risk of areas of showery rain moving northwards, with isolated heavy showers and possible thunderstorms following on later. On Tuesday, cloudier, wet and breezy weather in the northwest will push eastward across Northern Ireland and much of Scotland. At the same time, the front responsible will weaken, leaving much of Wales and England with a fine day. The weakened weather front will bring its cloud and patchy rain southwards on Wednesday. Behind it, skies will clear, leading to a cold and frosty night in the north of the UK on Wednesday night. Thursday looks like a decent day for the bulk of the country, with the best of any sunny spells in the southeast. It won't last however; it will turn unsettled and windy from the north and west during Friday and Saturday as a more vigorous front will bring wet and rather windy weather southeastward. For the rest of the weekend, clearer weather will follow the active front, although with locally heavy showers pushing into northwestern parts. For the week as a whole, daytime temperatures will be generally near normal, perhaps warm in the south in any sunshine.
Monday 6 October—Sunday 12 October
Autumn arrives, finally.
Into the following week, it looks at present as though it will gradually become more unsettled across all the UK. Periods of wet and windy weather can be expected, albeit with drier and brighter periods in between. The warmest, driest part of the country is likely to be the southeast, which will remain closest to the area of higher pressure over Europe. Elsewhere, especially in the wetter, winder spells, daytime temperatures will most likely be on the cooler side, with a risk of local frost and fog developing where clear skies prevail overnight.
Monday 13 October—Sunday 26 October
Some more rain for the gardens.
Current indications suggest that generally unsettled conditions are likely to affect many areas of the UK during this period, with spells of wet and windy weather continuing. However these are still likely to be interspersed with drier and clearer interludes, which will also bring an increasing risk of overnight frosts and fog patches, especially across northern parts. Daytime temperatures look signalled to remain generally close to the seasonal average.
Will the weather change type again as we move into November?
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 6 October
Tuesday 30 September Published at 04:42
Clouding over in the north and west, warm sunshine southeast.
Low cloud and fog dispersing to give some warm sunny spells for many. Cloud and occasional rain in the northwest will move slowly eastwards into other western and some northern parts. Breezy in the northwest.
The cloud and patchy rain will continue to move southeastwards overnight, though becoming increasingly fragmented, reaching the southeast by morning. Another band of cloud and patchy rain in the northwest.
A fairly cloudy picture with some mainly light and patchy rain at times. Becoming drier, clearer and fresher from the northwest through the day, reaching northern England by evening.
Outlook for Thursday to Saturday
Bright and breezy in the north on Thursday, cloudier with some drizzle in the south. Wet and windy weather will move southeastwards Friday and Saturday, followed by fresher, showery conditions.