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Wednesday 18 October Published at 20:11
Issued by the Met Office
YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN for Northern Ireland
Updated 11:30 on Wed 18th
Valid from 15:00 on Thu 19th to 23:55 on Thu 19th
Heavy rain will affect Northern Ireland later on Thursday. This will fall onto saturated ground and is likely to lead to flooding in places; delayed travel may well result, including through the busy evening period. It is possible that a few properties or businesses could also be affected.
Rain will spread into Northern Ireland on Thursday morning, turning persistent and occasionally heavy in the afternoon and lasting well into the evening before dying out. 20 to 40 mm of rain within 12 hours, (perhaps nearer 60 mm over the Mournes) falling on already very wet ground, seems likely to lead to flooding of some prone locations.
YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for Wales, South West, South East and Eastern England
Updated 12:10 on Wed 18th
Valid from 04:00 on Sat 21st to 23:59 on Sat 21st
A spell of strong southwesterly winds is expected. Some coastal routes and communities are likely to be affected by large waves, with potential for flooding of properties. Some transport disruption is likely across the warning area, with delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport. Short term loss of power and other services is also possible.
An intense low pressure system is expected to bring a swathe of strong southwesterly winds over southern areas early on Saturday, these steadily transferring east through the morning and early afternoon, becoming westerly and eventually northwesterly later whilst also slowly easing. Gusts exceeding 50 mph are expected widely within the warning area, with gusts of around 70 mph along exposed coastal areas. These are expected to coincide with high tides, leading to locally dangerous conditions
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
The Met Office warns the public and emergency responders of severe or hazardous weather which has the potential to cause danger to life or widespread disruption through the National Severe Weather Warning Service.
The Met Office issues warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. These warnings are given a colour depending on a combination of the likelihood of the event happening and the impact the conditions may have.
For more information, see the Met Office Weather Warnings Guide.
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 16 October Published at 10:00
Very unsettled start - sign of a drier spell later
The first fortnight of October has seen some pleasant warm weather in the southeastern half of the UK, where it has also been very dry so far, but the northwest has been much wetter: Capel Curig in Snowdonia has recorded 255 mm of rainfall already. Even the southeast will see some significant rain during the next fortnight but there are signs of a more settled weather pattern returning later in the period.
Monday 16 October—Sunday 22 October
Stormy start - more wind and rain later
The second half of the month begins with ex-hurricane Ophelia bringing a stormy day. Severe gales will spread to western coastal parts, with some disruption likely and gales will develop in many other inland areas later. At the same time, eastern England will be warm and bright. Gales will continue into Tuesday morning over the northern half of the UK but will decrease steadily. The south will have another mainly dry, bright and rather warm day while the north is cloudy with some showers. On Wednesday, most areas will be cloudy and there'll be some patchy, mainly light rain around. The second half of the week will turn very unsettled everywhere, with bands of rain crossing all parts, and there's the potential for further very windy episodes. Temperatures will also drop back towards average.
Monday 23 October—Sunday 29 October
Unsettled start and turning cooler
The last full week of October will begin on a very unsettled note. There will be periods of rain and some strong winds likely. The week's weather will keep an unsettled flavour but there will be lengthier drier, clearer periods as the week goes on. Should the winds fall light overnight, a couple of cold starts are likely, with local frost and patchy fog but rain and wind are likely to return for a time especially to the northwest.
Monday 30 October—Sunday 12 November
Prospect of some settled autumnal weather
Heading into early November, the weather pattern looks set to remain in a rather unsettled mood, with occasional spells of wind and rain but also some drier and brighter intervals. As the fortnight goes on, so a more settled spell is expected to develop although the northwest may hang on to mild conditions with cloudy, breezy weather and some rain. Elsewhere, higher pressure promises a much drier period with lighter winds and it will turn rather chilly at times. Overnight fog and frost will also become much more likely.
The change to more settled weather is far from certain, will we see frost and fog set the tone for early November?
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 23 October
Wednesday 18 October Published at 15:38
Wet and very windy on Friday night and Saturday
This Evening and Tonight
Rain in the East Midlands and northwest England will move to northeast England during the evening. Rain is also likely overnight in parts of Scotland. Elsewhere, it will be cloudy, mild and mostly dry, with mist and fog on hills.
Although there will be some dry and bright weather, rain will move from central-southern England into central and northern England. Later, rain and strong winds will arrive in the west.
Outlook for Friday to Sunday
Wind and rain will clear on Friday leaving a brighter afternoon. It will become wet and very windy overnight into Saturday, bringing severe coastal gales. Winds will ease during Sunday.