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Warnings

Thursday 14 December Published at 11:14

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING of ICE for Northern Ireland, Scotland, parts of England and Wales.

Between 11:00 Thurs 14th and 11:00 Fri 15th

Once again, ice will be a hazard in places through this period. This will happen as heavy showers of rain, hail, sleet & snow alternate with clearer periods, allowing temperatures to dip sharply. Through the rest of Thursday daytime, ice and snow will be mostly found over higher ground but with possible local accumulations of snow at lower levels from more prolonged showers affecting the central belt of Scotland, along with Dumfries & Galloway and Borders. As a consequence, icy stretches are likely on untreated roads, pavements and cycle paths with some slippery surfaces likely. There may also be travel disruption.

Cold, showery weather remains across the UK for the rest of the week. Ice will be the most widespread hazard, especially overnight and particularly on untreated surfaces, or where heavy showers wash grit or salt off roads. Most of the snow accumulations will occur above 150 m where 2-6 cm is likely in places. However, 1-2 cm is possible at low levels very locally where heavier wintry showers occur.

Flood Warning

Issued by the Environment Agency or by SEPA in Scotland and Natural Resources Wales in Wales

Wednesday 13 December

There are no flood warnings in force anywhere in the United Kingdom.

About the Met Office Weather Warnings

The Met Office warns the public and emergency responders of severe or hazardous weather which has the potential to cause danger to life or widespread disruption through the National Severe Weather Warning Service.

The Met Office issues warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. These warnings are given a colour depending on a combination of the likelihood of the event happening and the impact the conditions may have.

For more information, see the Met Office Weather Warnings Guide.

About Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline - 0345 988 1188

Monthly Outlook

Monday 11 December Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary
Four Seasons in one week

We have seen a mix of weather types recently. Last week started with mild, dry, cloudy conditions across the country, many places seeing double figure temperatures, a few degrees above where they should be in early December. Then storm Caroline came along on Thursday, the 3rd named storm of the season brought destructive winds to northern Scotland and gusts of 93mph at Fair Isle in the Northern Isles. As Caroline moved away towards Norway, northerly winds kicked in and temperatures went on a downward spiral as Arctic air flooded across the British Isles. Snow showers produced significant accumulations over northern Scotland, Northern Ireland, parts of Wales and the Midlands on Friday and into the weekend. However, the most disruptive snowfall occurred on Sunday across Wales, the Midlands and down to Oxfordshire and even the London area. The deepest snow was measured across mid-Wales with Sennybridge recording 30cm.

Monday 11 December—Sunday 17 December
Briefly milder but mostly cold

The cold weather will continue across much of the country on Monday and Tuesday but it won't be quite as cold as it was over the weekend. A very deep area of low pressure crossing northern France on Monday has been named Storm Ana under the new SW Europe storm naming scheme. This will bring some wet and windy weather to south-east England with possibly some sleet for a time as it clears away later in the day. Further north, it will stay mainly dry and cold with some sunshine.
It will be a very cold night on Monday night with a widespread severe frost and icy stretches to be followed by a mainly dry and sunny Tuesday. Temperatures again on the cold side with a northerly breeze.
A band of rain will cross the country on Tuesday night with snow confined to the hill-tops. Followed by briefly milder spell of weather, temperatures on Wednesday reaching double figures across England and Wales and a little milder across Scotland and Northern Ireland. There will be sunny spells and scattered showers during the second half of the week with the showers merging at times in western areas to give some longer spells of rain. There will be fewer showers and the best of the sunshine in eastern areas.
The weather looks set to turn colder again as we go into the weekend as winds start tocome in from a chilly northerly direction. However the air will be polar in origin and not the extremely cold arctic air we have been experiencing recently. There will be sunny spells and further showers with the showers turning to snow over the hills.

Monday 18 December—Sunday 24 December
Weather on a tight rope

The weather is finely balanced in the lead up to Christmas. Cold air will remain just to the north and east of the British Isles with milder air just to the west. We will stay in the battle zone between these two air masses.
We are likely to end up with a mixed bag of weather conditions for the third week in December.
The week looks set to start off on a cold note with sunny spells and a lot of dry weather with just a few wintry showers in the north. There will be frosts at night with the risk of ice. We will then get another push of milder air from the Atlantic brought in by an area of low pressure which is likely to bring some wet and windy weather across the country. The most persistent and heavier rainfall is likely to be over western Scotland and Northern Ireland.
At this stage, it looks as though the milder weather will not last for too long with colder weather from the northwest set to return to the British Isles over the weekend. There will be some sunshine and also blustery showers, these again turning to sleet snow over the hills.

Monday 25 December—Sunday 7 January
Cold probably winning out.

Indications at this stage suggest that temperatures will fall a little lower than average for the last week of December and into January with our air coming in from a northwesterly direction. Winds will be strong at times bringing sunshine and blustery showers. This could mean that the showers tend to fall as rain at lower levels leaving the hills, the most likely areas to see a White Christmas.
As discussed last week, the indicators of global weather changes such as La Nina all point towards slow moving weather patterns and colder conditions for western Europe.
We are likely to see a lot of dry settled weather with sharp frosts at night but also wintry showers brought in on cold northerly winds. This will be briefly interrupted by short lived, milder, wet and windy interludes.

Next week

How are things shaping-up for the middle of January? Find out next week.

Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

Next update at 10:00, Monday 18 December

Summary

Thursday 14 December Published at 01:37

Summary

Sunshine and scattered showers, some wintry.
Today

There will be sunshine and wintry showers, with some longer spells of rain, or snow at times in the west. The best of the sunshine will be in the east. Staying windy in the south, but winds easing further north.

Tonight

A mix of clear spells and showers overnight, the showers wintry in places. Strong winds will affect western and later northern areas. Frost, ice and patchy freezing fog forming.

Friday

After starting cloudy in some areas, Friday will be a cold day with plenty of sunshine. However, brisk northerly winds will bring a scattering of showers to windward coasts throughout.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday

Bright, but chilly in the east Saturday. Patchy rain further west. Turning milder, wet and windy Sunday. Fine for many Monday, with patchy fog, but windy and damp far north.

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Last updated 12:38 GMT, Thursday 14 Dec