Hurikán Katrina bude mať nepochybne veľký dopad na domácu ekonomiku v Spojených štátoch. Ako býva pri prírodných katastrofách zvykom, medzi prvými, kto zverejní odhady škôd, sú poisťovacie spoločnosti. Ako sa takéto odhady robia? O tom už nám povie ekonomický spravodajca BBC Andrew Walker.

Vypočujte si správu

The insurance industry is well prepared to make a quick rough and ready estimate of the loss it will suffer. The early figures are based on computer programmes operated by companies called risk modelling agencies. Over the last few days they have been using fairly detailed information in their databases about the area affected.

They have know about the population, housing density, types of construction and the extent of insurance cover. To that they add information about wind speeds, rainfall and the path the storm has taken. They also have to make some estimates about what are called excesses - the amount that policyholders have to cover themselves, before they can claim from their insurers. For big companies, these figures can be millions of dollars.

The insurance cover is predominantly held by householders and private business. There will clearly be extensive damage to government property but industry experts say it is not widely insured. They also say that the cost of damage to offshore oil installations is likely to be very high, perhaps the largest ever suffered by the industry. It is also especially difficult to estimate at this early stage. One expert said that these early figures are not hugely accurate. He also said there are often additional factors that can push up losses - for example, labour and building materials costs often rise because they are in such demand for reconstruction.

In addition there are uninsured losses - which could according to one insurance industry economist put total damage as high as fifty billion dollars.

Andrew Walker, BBC Economics Correspondent

Vypočujte si jednotlivé slová a slovné spojenia

rough and ready estimate
hrubý odhad

housing density
hustota osídlenia

the extent of insurance cover
rozsah poistenia

policyholders
poistenci

predominantly
prevažne

extensive
rozsiahly, veľký

offshore oil installations
ropné zariadenia na mori

not hugely accurate
neveľmi presný

push up
vytlačiť (hore), zvýšiť

uninsured losses
nepoistené straty