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Iraq after Saddam Hussein
Iraqi army on parade
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Saddam Hussein has governed Iraq with an iron grip since 1979. His family's control has been so dictatorial that there are no real political institutions that might take over the running of the state if he were deposed. What could follow is a chaotic power vacuum.

Iraq has no serious internal opposition, and there are doubts about the various organisations that have set themselves as opposition groups in exile - some are badly run and disunited, others have no popular support in Iraq at all.

The army, widely seen as the institution keeping control of the country, may be the key to deposing Iraq's ruler and keeping the country in one piece.

Reports in the US press have said that the US administration is considering a plan to occupy Iraq and install a US-led military government as a way of avoiding the country's chaotic disintegration.

Three-way split?

Officially, Middle Eastern governments would rather see Saddam Hussein stay in power than face the prospect of civil war and the break-up of the country. If Saddam Hussein lost power it is possible that Iraq would fragment into three entities controlled by the Kurds in the north, the Shia Muslims in the south and Sunni Muslims in the centre.

The former US Assistant Secretary of State for Middle Eastern Affairs, Richard Murphy, told BBC News Online: "I believe one must plan not just for the disappearance of the regime but for what takes its place and what happens the day after."

Mr Murphy says that the US and others will need to help rebuild Iraq's economy and infrastructure after the ravages of more than 10 years of sanctions and the "wasting of the treasures of Iraq in the hands of its leaders".

"It is not clear to me that this has been thought about by the administration as systematically and carefully as it needs to be, which would be irresponsible," Mr Murphy warns.

Iraq's military

Due to the lack of viable opposition forces, Iraq's army is being seen as more and more important in plans to overthrow Saddam Hussein.

 

Over the years, there have been numerous reports of plots within the Iraqi military to overthrow Saddam Hussein, which have been brutally put down.

Reports say senior army posts are rotated regularly, army units stationed near Baghdad have no ammunition in their guns and only a tiny number of people know about the president's whereabouts and movements.

Sad history of uprisings

There is very little chance of Saddam Hussein being swept away by a popular uprising and being replaced by a representative government.

In 1991, Iraqis in the north and south rebelled partly in response to US urgings. Thousands were killed when the US failed to give these uprisings any backing and they were crushed by the Iraqi army.

In 1995 and 1996, CIA-sponsored rebellions in northern Iraq were put down by Saddam Hussein when US air cover failed to materialise.

After these experiences, Iraqi factions that might oppose Saddam Hussein are unlikely to respond to another American call to arms.

Occupation plan

One possible answer to accusations that Washington is not planning for the period after Saddam Hussein is a plan being floated for the military occupation of the country. Under this plan, Iraq would be governed by an American military commander - much as Japan was governed by General Douglas MacArthur after its surrender in 1945.

US commanders would be responsible for maintaining stability and overseeing the transition to a democratic government for an undetermined period of time. The plan would allow the US forces full control over Iraq while they find and destroy weapons of mass destruction.

One prominent Iraqi opposition figure told the BBC the Americans would be naive to attempt to occupy the country - though a temporary foreign presence working with an Iraqi civilian government would be acceptable.

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