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Future of the Wildebeest Migration

If an increasing human population in Tanzania is leading to an increase in the number of Lions attacks on people, what does the future hold for Wildebeest on the Serengeti? Phillipa speaks to Mike Norton-Griffiths who isn't optimistic.

Wildebeest by Kip Lee

Do National Parks work?

How long will the great spectacle of the Wildebeest migration last as human populations grow?

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The Wildebeest migrations that Simon King and Jonathan Scott have been witnessing go back tens of thousands of years, following the African rains and the fresh grass they bring. The big national parks, including the Masai Mara, were put in place to protect wildlife years ago. But Africa has changed dramatically in the decades since, with a burgeoning human population bringing new pressures. So what’s happening now?

Mike Norton-Griffiths researches the economics of conservation and land use, and has worked for the Serengeti National Park, the IUCN and UNEP. We asked him for his analysis of the current situation and he is not particularly hopeful. The total number of Wildebeest oscillates around 1.3 million and in previous years, 800,000 individuals have crossed into Kenya's Masai Mara National Reserve. However, this figure is now down to around 300,000.

He believes this is due to the increasing cultivation of land by the local Masai people, which is taking away space for migratory populations. Unfortunately for the Wildebeest, the Masai have learnt to appreciate that they can make a better living by developing their land for agriculture instead of maintaing livestock, which takes up less space. For every $1 that can be made from tourism, $3 can be gained from livestock but this is nothing compared to the $12 that can be made from agriculture.

For conservationists, a balance has to be struck between the welfare of the local Masai and the need for space through which these spectacular migrants can pass. Preventing the Masai from developing their land for cultivation and forcing them to maintain livestock only ultimately creates a poverty trap that keeps the Masai poor. This is unfair and unsustainable. If there is one potential solution, Mike Norton-Griffiths claims it is sport hunting - this has apparently kept land in Tanzania undeveloped.

Further Reading:

Last report: Jonathan Scott on Wildebeest
Follow this year's great migration at Wild Watch

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