More or Less: Behind the Stats

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Show recent episodes (10)

All episodes (64)

• Would firing staff 'at will' work? (R4) 25 May 12

  Mon, 28 May 12

  Duration:
  25 mins

  Is there any evidence to support the Beecroft Review's recommended changes to employment law? Plus: hard-working Greeks, infidelity, and Ben Goldacre on publication bias.

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• The maths of infidelity (WS) 25 May 12

  Fri, 25 May 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  It’s a very commonly-held belief that men are less faithful than women But it takes two to tango. So can this be mathematically possible? And we answer a cry for help from an Australian listener who wants to be “a bit more average”.

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• Where are the world hardest workers? (WS) 18 May 12

  Mon, 21 May 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  Earlier in the year we found out that Greeks put in more working hours than Germans. But the Germans are more efficient. So that got us thinking: who works the longest hours in the world?

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• Troubled families and unneutered cats. (R4) 18 May 12

  Fri, 18 May 12

  Duration:
  28 mins

  Troubled families, nursing numbers and the mathematical consequences of unneutered cats.

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• Trouble on the Greek railways (WS) 11 May 12

  Mon, 14 May 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  Would it be cheaper to send every Greek rail passenger by taxi instead? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• Are CEOs worth it? (R4) 11 May 12

  Fri, 11 May 12

  Duration:
  29 mins

  Executive pay, chess and trouble on the Greek railway.

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• A grand economic experiment? (WS) 04 May 12

  Fri, 4 May 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  Are we witnessing a grand economic experiment being played out between Europe, trying to cut its way out of trouble, and the United States, trying to spend its way to redemption? Plus, we investigate the height of North Koreans. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• Austerity, border queues and bank holidays (R4) 04 May 12

  Fri, 4 May 12

  Duration:
  28 mins

  Are we witnessing a grand economic experiment playing out between Britain and the United States? How long have travellers been waiting to get through immigration at Heathrow? Plus, are you going to destroy the economy this bank holiday weekend?

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• The formula that changed the world 27 Apr 12

  Fri, 27 Apr 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  The Midas Formula - In this week's More or Less: The story of Black-Scholes, the equation that transformed Wall Street – and the arguments over whether it made the world a better place, or helped cause the financial mess we have all been dealing with for the past five years. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• The formula that changed the world 27 Apr 12

  Fri, 27 Apr 12

  Duration:
  29 mins

  Rain and drought in numbers, the formula which changed Wall Street and then the world forever - and why Conservative MPs used to be taller than their Labour counterparts.

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• 20 Apr 12

  Fri, 20 Apr 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  Is the rate of species extinction exaggerated - or even unknowable? Producer: Richard Knight This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• 20 Apr 12

  Fri, 20 Apr 12

  Duration:
  28 mins

  We investigate the height of North Koreans, the width of police officers and rate of species extinction. Producer: Richard Knight

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• Eurostats - True or False? 13 Apr 12

  Fri, 13 Apr 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  Are there really more Porsche Cayenne owners in Greece than taxpayers earning over 50,000 euros? Can there really be 30,000 chauffeur driven cars for the exclusive use of Italian politicians? Would it really be cheaper to send everyone by taxi than train in Greece and is youth unemployment in Spain really 50%? Ruth Alexander and Wesley Stephenson take a very close look at some widely reported Eurostats to see whether they stand up to scrutiny for out this week's More or Less. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• Stamp prices and the first maths book 06 Apr 12

  Fri, 6 Apr 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  The Royal Mail says UK stamp prices are still among the best value in Europe, despite an imminent steep price rise. Tim Harford finds out whether this is true, and compares the price of postal services around the world. Plus, he finds out how, after being invented by Indian mathematicians, modern numbers became established in the ancient Arab world and then journeyed on to Europe in what was essentially the first maths textbook ever written, "Liber Abaci". Its author was Leonardo of Pisa, better known as Fibonacci. Tim speaks to Keith Devlin, author of The Man of Numbers, to find out more. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• Do big football clubs win more penalties? 30 Mar 12

  Fri, 30 Mar 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  Do Manchester United and other leading clubs like Real Madrid and Barcelona benefit from biased refereeing decisions when they play in front of their home crowd? It’s a widely-held view, but Tim Harford challenges it with a look at the penalty statistics. Plus, he meets Hans Rosling of Gapminder at the Skoll World Forum: if you want to understand the world you’re living in, and how it will be different to the world your children and grandchildren will live in, listen to this interview. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• What is the world average salary? 23 Mar 12

  Fri, 23 Mar 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  If there were perfect income equality worldwide, and everybody earned the same amount of money, how much would they earn? And what is the average employee wage across the world? Tim Harford answers both these questions. Plus, he attempts to rank the world’s top military forces. This edition of the programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• Red meat death risk? 16 Mar 12

  Fri, 16 Mar 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  Eating an extra portion of red meat every day is associated with an increased risk of death, says a new study. But what does this mean? A risk expert works it out for Tim Harford. Plus, which are the world’s largest employers? This edition of More or less was broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• Is Apple worth more than Poland? 09 Mar 2012

  Fri, 9 Mar 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  Tim Harford explains why the technology giant Apple is not bigger than Poland, as media reports have claimed. And he scrutinises the claim that the Millennium Development Goal on safe drinking water has been achieved ahead of schedule. The World Health Organisation, which along with Unicef announced that the target had been met, concedes that the numbers are not actually that certain. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• Less than a dollar a day 02 Mar 12

  Fri, 2 Mar 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  Tim Harford assesses how global poverty is measured, as the World Bank releases the latest figures on the number of people living on less than a dollar a day. What progress has been made, and how useful a benchmark is this “dollar a day” global poverty line? This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• Syria poll and Europe’s work hours 24 Feb 12

  Fri, 24 Feb 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  Fifty-five per cent of Syrians do not think their leader President Assad should resign, according to media reports of an opinion poll. It’s a striking number, given the bloody violence that has broken out in Syria. But Tim Harford discovers that, on closer inspection, the statistic is not what it seems. Plus, which European country works the longest hours? You might be surprised. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World service.

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• Cybermetrics and Groundhog Day 17 Feb 12

  Fri, 17 Feb 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  Can you measure your popularity – or that of anyone or anything – by the number of results that an internet search generates? Tim Harford points the finger at lazy journalists. Plus, a professor of economics assesses the accuracy of a groundhog’s weather forecasts, made famous by the Hollywood film Groundhog Day. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• Measuring famine 10 Feb 12

  Fri, 10 Feb 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  How do you measure a famine? Following the UN’s recent announcement that famine conditions have ended in Somalia, More or Less explores what the definition of a famine is – and how definite a definition it is. Tim Harford hears from Grainne Moloney, head of the UN’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit and Professor Stephen Devereux from the Institute of Development Studies. Also in the programme: Muhammed Ali’s boxing trainer, Angelo Dundee, was arguably one of sport’s greatest behind-the-scenes figures. But did he really deliberately tear Ali’s boxing glove to win the star crucial recovery time in his 1963 fight against Sir Henry Cooper? Tim Harford gets out his stopwatch for a simple exercise in counting. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• More alive than dead? 03 Feb 12

  Fri, 3 Feb 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  Tim Harford investigates one of the most popular questions from More or Less listeners: “Are there more people alive today than have ever lived?” It is a zombie statistic that every time it is laid to rest it rises again. He also looks at whether science fiction writer Arthur C Clarke was right when he suggested that behind every living person are 30 ghosts. He also investigates the strange story of Michelle Obama’s shopping trip to a lingerie store in New York. Can she really have spent $50,000 on underwear? This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• Sizing up cities 27 Jan 2012

  Fri, 27 Jan 12

  Duration:
  11 mins

  Which are the world’s biggest cities, and what are their populations? Two simple questions that we discover are surprisingly difficult to answer. Plus, has the world got heavier or lighter since the industrial revolution? It’s a question posed by a More or Less listener that got us wondering, too. Dr Chris Smith, part of a group of Cambridge University researchers, known as the Naked Scientists, reckons he’s worked out the answer. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• Climate bet; Africa Cup of Nations 20 Jan 2012

  Fri, 20 Jan 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  A four-year bet about global warming between two scientists is settled. In 2008, after there had been no new record for the global average temperature set since 1998, David Whitehouse and James Annan disagreed over whether there would be a new record by 2011. As the UK Meteorological Office publishes the figures for the past year, presenter Tim Harford brings the two scientists together. Who has won, and does the victory tell us anything about global warming? Plus, Peter Stott from the Met Office tells us how the world’s temperature is measured. Also in the programme: sports statistician Robert Mastrodomenico attempts to predict the results of the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations football tournament. Will his numerical analysis impress the BBC’s African football expert Farayi Mungazi? This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• Chavez's cancer claims 14 Jan 12

  Sat, 14 Jan 12

  Duration:
  10 mins

  President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela thinks the US may have developed a secret technology to give him and other Latin American leaders cancer. He said the fact that several presidents have had cancer is "difficult to explain using the law of probabilities". Is he right? Tim Harford speaks to Dr Eduardo Cazap, president of the Union of International Cancer Control. Plus, it is often said that there are more Malawian doctors in the British city of Manchester than there are in Malawi. Can this be true? And if professionals emigrate is it always bad news for the country they leave? The programme hears from John Lwanda, a Malawian doctor based in the UK; and Robert Guest, author of "Borderless Economics". This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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• High speed rail 13 Jan 12

  Fri, 13 Jan 12

  Duration:
  29 mins

  High Speed rail - Tim Harford speaks to railway consultant Chris Stokes and Alison Munro from HS2 Ltd. He investigates the different measures of the rise in executive pay with Steve Tatton from Income Data Services and Sarah Wilson from research group Manifest. And resolves a four year-old bet on climate change between climate scientist James Annan and astrophysicist David Whitehouse and Wesley Stephenson looks behind the figures for youth unemployment in Spain.

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• Using statistics in court 06 Jan 12

  Fri, 6 Jan 12

  Duration:
  28 mins

  Tim Harford tackles the use of statistics in court, the average rise in rail fares, infinity and resolves another marital dispute about probability.

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• 2011 in numbers 30 Dec 11

  Fri, 30 Dec 11

  Duration:
  29 mins

  A guide to interesting, informative or just plain idiosyncratic numbers of the year. Plus, does probability really exist? Contributors: David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University; Owen Spottiswoode, Fullfact.org; Tracey Brown from Sense about Science; Jil Matheson, UK Statistics Authority; George Monbiot; Sir Mark Walport, Director of the Wellcome Trust; Money Box presenter Paul Lewis; Sports Statistician, Robert Mastrodomenico; Dr Linda Yeuh Economics Correspondent at Bloomberg; Stand up Mathematician Matt Parker

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• Who are the 1% and the 99%? 23 DEC 11

  Fri, 23 Dec 11

  Duration:
  31 mins

  Tim Harford on income inequality in the UK, and elsewhere. He speaks to Professor Sir Tony Atkinson of Oxford University; Stewart Lansley, author of 'The Cost of Inequality'; and Professor Donald Boudreaux of George Mason University. Also, David Spiegelhalter, the Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University explains why he took on what could be his riskiest venture to date - appearing on BBC One's Winter Wipeout. Plus, the magic of maths with magician and Stanford maths professor Persi Diaconis.

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• Higgs boson statistics 16 Dec 11

  Fri, 16 Dec 11

  Duration:
  30 mins

  In the week scientists at the Large Hadron Collider announced that the most coveted prize in particle physics - the Higgs boson - may have been found, Tim Harford hears that the statistical significance is being mis-reported. Plus, the difficulties of cornering a market (especially when the commodity is a 1980s plastic doll). And, Tim Harford talks to author Keith Devlin about how Fibonacci revolutionised trade by introducing medieval businessmen to simple arithmetic.

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• Supermarket price wars 09 Dec 12

  Fri, 9 Dec 11

  Duration:
  30 mins

  Tim Harford on National Literacy Trust figures and the maths of supermarket price wars. Plus, he continues to scrutinise the popular statistics of the Eurozone crisis - do Italian tax payers really shell out 2 billion euros a year for their politicians to be chauffeured around? And, what are the odds of cracking six double-yolk eggs in a row?

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• Pensions, and the Eurozone crisis.

  Fri, 2 Dec 11

  Duration:
  29 mins

  In the week of a nationwide strike over pension changes, Tim Harford explains how the government can make public sector pensions sound generous, at the same time the unions can make them sound small. And he finds out why a Greek national statistician is under suspicion of committing crimes against numbers. Plus, is it really true that there are more Porsche Cayenne owners than tax payers declaring an income of more than 55,000 euros in Greece? Also, are affordable homes affordable? And can the whole world fit on the Isle of Wight? Tim tries to cram his studio full of Radio 4 presenters and producers to test the theory.

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• Brain Culture Part 3, 29 Nov 2011

  Tue, 29 Nov 11

  Duration:
  29 mins

  In a change to our usual format, we are podcasting Matthew Taylor's "Brain Culture" series. The former Number 10 strategy head looks at politics and mind control, asking if new knowledge about the human brain will allow us to make better choices or leave us open to ever more manipulation . 

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• Brain Culture Part 2, 22 Nov 2011

  Tue, 22 Nov 11

  Duration:
  29 mins

  In a change to the usual format, we are podcasting Matthew Taylor's "Brain Culture" series. Matthew Taylor’s series “Brain Culture” continues. The former Number 10 head of strategy asks whether Britain’s education system will be changed by new insights into how human brains learn and retain knowledge.

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• Brain Culture Part 1, 15 Nov 2011

  Tue, 15 Nov 11

  Duration:
  29 mins

  In a change to the usual format, we are podcasting Matthew Taylor’s series “Brain Culture”. He explores how neuroscience will change society, asking how the justice system will change now that we can scan criminal brains.

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• Government waste 09 Sep 11

  Fri, 9 Sep 11

  Duration:
  28 mins

  In More or Less this week: Government waste, a logic puzzle, the statistics of spying, Olympic economics and the Janitor problem.

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• A Euro Debt Odyssey: 02 Sep 2011

  Fri, 2 Sep 11

  Duration:
  28 mins

  In this week's More or Less: a Euro debt odyssey, the placebo effect and 70 years of social surveys.

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• Scottish Independence: 26 Aug 2011

  Fri, 26 Aug 11

  Duration:
  28 mins

  On this week's More or Less: Scottish independence, mobile phones and cancer, and is Tendulkar the greatest sportsman?

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• Is salt bad for you? 19 Aug 2011

  Fri, 19 Aug 11

  Duration:
  28 mins

  More or Less has the latest on salt, 'zero tolerance' policing, and how to predict the adult height of growing children.

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• The maths of rioting: 12 Aug 2011

  Fri, 12 Aug 11

  Duration:
  28 mins

  In More or Less this week: riots, debt, disability benefit and when to buy a lotto ticket.

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• US debt: 05 Aug 2011

  Fri, 5 Aug 11

  Duration:
  28 mins

  Tim Harford and the More or Less team unpick more numbers in the news. This week: US debt, NHS funding and the "27 club".

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• Public Sector Pay: 13 May 2011

  Fri, 13 May 11

  Duration:
  29 mins

  Investigating the public sector pay premium, statins and the 'decline effect'.

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• Climate Refugees: 8 May 2011

  Sat, 7 May 11

  Duration:
  28 mins

  More or Less looks at child poverty, climate refugees and Sir Henry Cooper's greatest moment.

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• Wedding Stats: 29 April 2011

  Fri, 29 Apr 11

  Duration:
  28 mins

  In More or Less this week: a cornucopia of wedding-related numbers. And AV explained.

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• How useful is GDP? 22 Apr 2011

  Fri, 22 Apr 11

  Duration:
  29 mins

  Tim Harford and team look at GDP, school standards and the results of 'The Other Census'.

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• Tuition fees: 15 April 2010

  Fri, 15 Apr 11

  Duration:
  29 mins

  Tim Harford and the team examine examine tuition fees, drugs testing and inflation.

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• Youth Unemployment: 08 Apr 2011

  Fri, 8 Apr 11

  Duration:
  28 mins

  In More or Less this week: youth unemployment, Trumpton and social mobility.

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• Small spending cuts? 01 Apr 11

  Fri, 1 Apr 11

  Duration:
  28 mins

  Tim Harford is back with a new series of More or Less, and the numbers behind the news. Are the cuts "small"? And we introduce "The Other Census".

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• The Story of Economics 'Monsters': 30 Mar 11

  Wed, 30 Mar 11

  Duration:
  29 mins

  In this three-part series Michael Blastland lays out the history of economic ideas to understand why economics goes wrong and whether it can ever go entirely right. In the third and final programme, 'Monsters', Michael investigates another view of economics: that it is the story of people, how they think and behave.

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• The Story of Economics 'Cogs': 23 Mar 2011

  Wed, 23 Mar 11

  Duration:
  29 mins

  'More or Less' creator Michael Blastland goes to Chicago to explore a machine-like view of the economy in the second part of 'The Story of Economics'.

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• The Story of Economics 'Gods': 16 Mar 2011

  Wed, 16 Mar 11

  Duration:
  29 mins

  More or Less creator Michael Blastland lays out the history of economic ideas to understand why economics goes wrong and whether it can ever go entirely right. In the first programme of a three part series, Michael travels to Athens and the site of Aristotle's Lyceum - where economics as a discipline began.

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• Health check 21 Jan 11

  Fri, 21 Jan 11

  Duration:
  28 mins

  The Government says Britain's health care standards have fallen behind those of our European neighbours. And World Health Organisation figures support his claim. But do those numbers tell the whole story?

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• Street grooming 14 Jan 11

  Fri, 14 Jan 11

  Duration:
  28 mins

  We look at street grooming, examine the new bank taxes, revisit Ambridge in the wake of Loxleygate and ask just how many guys there are named Mo(hammed).

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• Big numbers 07 Jan 11

  Fri, 7 Jan 11

  Duration:
  28 mins

  More or Less examines this week's claims and counter-claims about VAT, exposes some seriously sloppy reporting and - finally - reveals the truth about Jack the "psychic" monkey.

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• 2010 in numbers 31 Dec 10

  Fri, 31 Dec 10

  Duration:
  28 mins

  Tim Harford and the More or Less team explore 2010 in numbers. Happy New Year to all our listeners.

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• What the Dickens? 24 Dec 10

  Fri, 24 Dec 10

  Duration:
  28 mins

  Boom. Bust. Bah humbug. Tim Harford narrates 'A More or Less Christmas Carol' in which British Bank plc boss Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by the ghosts of banking past, present and future. Will he heed their warnings?

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• Council of despair 17 Dec 10

  Fri, 17 Dec 10

  Duration:
  29 mins

  Local government budgets are being cut. More or Less looks at how the pie is sliced and finds everything depends on Wokingham (yes, really). Plus: we take a look at inflation and consult the magic More or Less monkey.

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• Degrees of Debt: 10 Dec 2010

  Fri, 10 Dec 10

  Duration:
  28 mins

  We look at the numbers behind the increase in the cap on undergraduate tuition fees in England. Are the changes fair and progressive? Are they dropping future students into a deep hole of debt? Or are they both?

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• Gay Britain 01 Oct 10

  Fri, 1 Oct 10

  Duration:
  28 mins

  Tim Harford and the More or Less team examine the micromort measure of risk and official statistics on sexual identity.

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• How welfare works 24 Sep 10

  Fri, 24 Sep 10

  Duration:
  28 mins

  Tim Harford and the More or Less team examine more numbers in the news. This week: Claiming benefits has been described by the Chancellor as - for some - a "lifestyle choice". What does the evidence tell us about how incentives work in the welfare system?; The numbers of some of Britain's best-loved birds are declining. Fast. Many think cats are to blame. Are they right?; Why the Prime Minister's salary has become a convenient unit of measurement; And we bring you the results of our mathematical attempt to level the playing field at this year's Great North Run half marathon.

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• Who earns more? 17 Sep 2010

  Fri, 17 Sep 10

  Duration:
  28 mins

  Who earns more: private or public employees? And are your trousers flattering you?

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• Back to school: 10 Sep 2010

  Fri, 10 Sep 10

  Duration:
  29 mins

  More or Less looks at how maths is taught in schools today and it asks what the population of the world be if WWI had never happened.

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• 03 Sep 2010

  Fri, 3 Sep 10

  Duration:
  28 mins

  How reliable are life expectancy figures? Can cycling ever be safer than driving? And, what can maths tell us about guerilla insurgencies?

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