Weather

More barbecue weather but unsettled at times. Severe local thunderstorms, especially around or just after mid-month.

We have a typical low sunspot summer situation at the moment, with a current change in the stratospheric wind generating bouts of hot, humid weather. This should be repeated during July with further hot days, but summery spells will be interrupted, due to unfavourable solar magnetic connections. So a warm or very warm, mixed month seems likely.

Showers, some heavy, giving thunder in the west, will move east to replace the hot, very humid conditions in central and eastern parts. Fresher, breezier, weather will then dominate the remainder of the first week with showers, heaviest and most frequent in the north and west.

The second week may begin chillier, but we should see a spell of typical July weather, with often 'fair' rather than fine conditions, under variable amounts of cloud. The east and south should have the best of the sunny spells, making it warm even very warm and humid at times especially towards mid-July. It won't be entirely settled however, with scattered showers mainly in the north and over Scotland.

A complex depression mid-month could lead to some particularly severe thunderstorms, where torrential downpours could cause local 'flash' flooding. A rise in pressure around the 20th should then give a mainly dry, quieter period. It may be cooler briefly but as temperatures rise again, another very warm humid spell may occur into the final week of July followed by showers from the west that could give thunder again.

In a changeable month, there could be yet another fine very warm or hot spell into the final few days of July. This could make it very humid once more, with showers perhaps heavy giving thunder probably moving into western parts by month end.

Terry Scholey

Temperature

A warm July is expected in the south and east, where the mean average will be above normal, with only brief cooler intervals. The north and west will be cooler, with temperatures closer to average relative to normal.

Rainfall

There will be some good dry spells especially in the east and south, but rainfall will be evenly spread especially in the north and west. Despite the dry spells total will be close to average in most parts, with heavy downpours in thunderstorms causing variations.

Sunshine

The north and west should have totals close to normal, while the east and south will probably have above average amounts, although variable amounts cloud will occasionally spoil things.