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Friday, 06 June, 2003
Why weather forecasts are big business!
Dawn over Scarborough - David Ambridge
Photo by David Ambridge

May was warmer, drier and sunnier than normal this year.

Weather guru Paul Hudson explains how weather forecasts are used by the business world for financial planning.

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FACTS

 May saw a wapping 197 hours of sunshine.

 It was also quite dry with only 43mm of rain recorded, and warm with a recorded temperature of 16.8 deg C

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Businesses are beginning to realise that the weather can have an enormous effect on their activities and profits and there is no doubt now that weather is big business in itself.

Big money contracts

The Met office has multi million pound contracts with the Civil Aviation authority and provides forecasts for supermarket chains to enable them to plan which foods to stock.

They even issue ground frost warnings to coffee buyers in Brazil so they can hedge against the price of coffee rising if frost damage occurs to crops - the list of customers is endless.

Even the insurance industry is getting in on the act.

Weather & insurance

According to datamonitor, weather related claims on household insurance policies soared by 26% in 2002 - accounting for nearly half of the total claims by value.

The increase was largely due to storm damage claims. Insurance companies can hedge against bad weather, and make provisions for such payouts.

For example, although it is impossible to predict when and where a hurricane will strike weeks or months in advance, it is sometimes possible to predict how active the particular hurricane season will be.

Often, this is tied into whether or not it is an El Nino year.

So, if the Met office predicts a very active season with, say five or more hurricanes, insurance companies can make provisions for claims and even, in theory, increase premiums accordingly.

It's all a long way from the days of Bert Ford giving a forecast of sunshine and showers for the next 24 hours!

Sunny May

Fortunately there were no hurricanes in May, indeed it may surprise you that the month was actually warmer, drier and sunnier than normal.

This is probably due to the distribution of showers across the region (the figures quoted below are for Sheffield Weston park) some parts of the region suffered more frequent and heavier showers.

How could we have a month without breaking a record! In fact this month's accolade goes to Fylingdales, high up on the North York moors, which recorded its highest ever May temperature - 27.8C (82F) on Saturday 31st May.

Data from Sheffield Weston Park
Temperature 16.8 deg C (average 15.7 deg C)
Rainfall 43mm (Average 56mm)
Sunshine 197hrs (Average 185hrs)

Paul Hudson

 

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