|
Not
for the first time over the last few years, the month was dominated
by new records across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.
The
first four months of this year have been extremely dry.
 |
|
Are we set for a wet summer? |
Although
January rainfall was very close to the long term average, February
(41% of the long term average rainfall), March (36%) and April (43%)
all had less than half the normal rainfall.
In
fact a close look at the statistics takes us back to drought year
of 1976 which remarkably had exactly the same rainfall as the first
four months of 2003 at the Met office in Waddington, near Lincoln.
Drought
unlikely
However
a drought as severe as 1976 looks highly unlikely. It is often forgotten
that the seeds of the water shortage in 1976 were sown during 1975.
This
was a good summer, with below average rainfall, a trend which continued
through the rest of 1975.
So
as the spring of 1976 arrived, water stocks were already depressed
and as the dry and sunny weather extended into the summer of 1976,
the water shortage became severe.
However,
the summer came to an abrupt end at the end of August and into September
and the heavens opened - with flooding reported in some parts of
the country.
What
does the summer hold?
So
the big question is, what will this summer be like?
There
are two possible answers. The first is that the dry weather will
continue well into this year and so the summer will be a very good
one.
 |
|
Will it be brollies all round? |
This
is because the anticyclones which has been so dominant over the
last few months can sometimes be reluctant to move, with only temporary
changes to a more unsettled type of wet weather.
History
shows that they can in fact remain roughly in the same place on
and off for up to 18 months in more extreme circumstances.
The
second answer is one that we perhaps don't want to hear. And that
is following such a record breaking dry spell, mother nature will
act to balance things out, and the summer will be very wet.
Only
time will tell!
Paul
Hudson
|
