Forecaster Nate Silver on pundits
The man who successfully predicted the result of the US elections in all 50 states has warned Today programme listeners to distrust every prediction they hear on the Today programme and programmes like it.
Nate Silver, author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't, told Today presenter Evan Davis that political pundits have a particularly poor track record.
"One question I would ask is how confident does the person seem to be in their prediction and the more confident they are the more suspect you should regard it," Mr Silver said.
"Every now and then there is a real cause to put your neck on the line... but we are dealing with a complex society [and] a complex universe," he added.
First broadcast on BBC Radio 4's Today programme on Thursday 2 May 2013.